Sunday, July 31, 2016

Summer of Hope

Its been a summer of fear...but also a summer of hope.

With each month breaking the temperature records and July being the hottest on record and 2015 being hotter than 2014 and 2016 being hotter than 2015, its actually has not been that terrible here in Texas this year.

We've received more rain than usual and the Highland Lakes are unusually full.

The summer Olympics in Rio came off without much of hitch except for the drunk spoiled American swimmers who had to lie to get out of a little trouble thus within a few days finding themselves in real trouble and international liars on the way to losing real money as sponsors ran from them like Trump runs from the truth.

The National Conventions were early this year and both were spectacular.

The R's went first and theirs was spectacularly bad.  Breaking tradition, Trump actually appeared in the fog of dramatic lighting to introduce his wife.  She then gave a newly reprised edition of the  speech given by Michelle Obama 8 years ago.  When confronted with the the use of the almost exact words, they staff steadfastly did what they do so well...they lied and they denied.  They let Ted Cruz speak and then booed him off the stage for telling the mostly white crowd to vote their conscience.

Every night was a different little Trump, and each night they did a pretty good job of selling their Dad.  For all of them, it was the Dad that had divorced their mother, with one of the mothers stating in her divorce papers that he had actually raped her in a pique of anger over his failed hair surgery.

Then came the D's.

It opened up with the Chairman of the DNC resigning over the Russian assisted stolen emails of DNC staff which had discussed the race between  Clinton and Sanders in seemingly biased ways.  We were shocked to see that long time democratic staffers acted as if the non democrat Sanders was trying to take away the nomination from the Democrat from adulthood Clinton.  (She was a R in her youth)

So Wasserman resigned in shame, but from then the party took off.

With great speeches from the President, from Michelle, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, Chelsea Clinton, and the whole democratic constellation, the Convention soared.  And it culminated with the Virgin Hillary all in white against that royal blue background, and a blizzard of balloons that actually eclipsed the Trump dump. Many have called it the best Political Show perhaps ever.  And the polls showed it.

Within a week, HR Clinton was way ahead in the polls.  She was well ahead in Florida, in Ohio, in Michigan, and competing in Arizona and Georgia.

Meanwhile Trump's thuggish campaign manager became better known for running the Kremlin's man for president in Ukraine than for running the Kremlin's man here in the good old USSA. Meanwhile, Trump decided to go after the Gold Star mother and father that spoke at the Democratic Convention with such authority and impact.

By the end of the month, Trump and his campaign were struggling.  But convention bumps are called Bumps for a reason.  Labor day will tell the true story and as amazing as it seems, the election will tighten depending on the gaffs, the outside influences from the Russians and ISIS, and the debates which start in late September.

For me, rather than obsessing about our potential national large step backwards for a man, one giant leap backwards for mankind,  I have managed the stress and anxiety of the possibility of a white supremist, misogynist, power hungry narcissist becoming a national embarrassment that would try to unravel the global climate change accords signed in Paris last year by making my self busy making things look better.

Yes, after graduating from cardiac rehab, we started working on the back side of the big house in late spring.  I bought the doors and windows over two years ago, and drew up the plans three years ago.

The before and afters tell the story.

Then, after several years of sitting fallow, we started work on my now not so recently departed daughter's home.  A strange mixture of trust ownership, grief, and circumstance had left it in the small town American urban bar ditch.  But now, the magic harp has returned.



I'm hoping that the headlines on November 9th look this good.

And that the magic harp doesn't get stolen by the orange pygmy.


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Thursday, June 30, 2016

My 80th Birthday


Diary Entry September 20, 2029

It's my 80th birthday, and I'm glad to be able to  once again post a blog.  Twenty five years ago,  I started blogging right after George Bush won against Kerry.  It was a terrible thing to imagine.  Four more years of W pretty much took me into a Tea Party mode...not the T Party that was started by the billionaires when President Obama was elected, but the real Tea Party.

I started blogging everyday and did so until Obama was elected. I wrote something like 1200 posts in those four years.  After Obama was elected, my mania subsided substantially.  Still, in these less crazy years, I think my total blog posts number around  2000.

I guess, had the Donster somehow won, I would have been committed to another four more years of daily writing and writhing,  while watching the country and the World go down that black hole of hate. With all the other de-evolutionary characteristics and tactics of that notoriously dark campaign, I was relieved to see that the American mind is not as dumb and unsophisticated as Trump thought they were.  Like Bloomberg said at the convention in 2016, I'm from New York, and New Yorkers know a con when they see it.  Yes, Don the Con went down in bright orange flames that matched his hair coloring rather well

So we were spared.  And President HR Clinton turned out to be a much better president than almost anyone imagined.  She worked hard and she was smart.  And she solved some big problems.  Who would have imagined that a single payer system of health care would be adopted in her first term?

Ironic how the Rs got their way finally.  Obamacare was indeed repealed.  And Universal Health Care replaced it. It was as if the "not so near miss" with the Donster actually awoke a lot of folks up to what is really real.

And suddenly, the needle moved on climate change and concerted global action initiated at the Paris accords in 2015 was implemented with gusto.  As Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission, I went to that meeting with an Austin delegation. But it was the meeting of the Cities that gave the World the leadership it needed and  it started in Paris.

Yes, instead of responding to our lower natures as the true challenge of Climate Change became more and more apparent, a whole new pack of Mayors and Governors led the Cities and the States into sound energy policies that were not only environmentally smart, they were financially wise.  Coal lost out to solar because coal was too expensive.

The rush to wind power in the early 2000's was impressive, but the move to both large scale solar and distributed solar in the 20's was epic.  Of course it helped that power paint was developed...not to mention large scale solid state storage.  Our energy world changed in the proverbial blink of an eye.
Gone were the smoke stacks that belched out carbon and other pollutants into our air.

It's hard to imagine that we ever did it.  But when I was younger, we still smoked cigarettes on airplanes.  Yes, there used to be ash trays in airplane seats.  I even smoked in the classroom at UT when I was young. Attitudes about smoking changed in the 90's.  Attitudes about smoke changed in the 20's.

But the biggest  change in my lifetime has been in transportation.  Being involved in the development of the plug in hybrid vehicle as embodied by the Volt, I had always preached that society must move to a unified energy system where our cars, our homes, our power plants all talked to one another in one large gestalt system...that energy should move from electron to photon, and photon to electron in a solid state world of energy, movement, and information flows.

And as intelligence grew in our machines, it grew in ourselves.

We started putting "smart" in front of our machines early at the turn of the century.  We started talking about smart houses, smart grids, smart appliances, and smart phones.  But smart cars changed everything.

The last car I owned was the Tesla X.  And it was pretty smart.... A lot smarter than my ELR which would drive me to Dallas if only I would steer it.  But as Elon Musk continued to make his cars better and smarter; and as Apple, Google and the global high tech world tackled transportation, a new vision of transportation arose.  And it happened very quickly.

Once everyone with a smart phone realized they could summon a smart car in less time that it took to walk to your car, everyone somehow got it.  You don't need to build a mass transportation system on a rail.  No, with smart cars that drive themselves, every road that's built and every smart road that will be built becomes part of  this new transportation-communication paradigm. And the need for more roads was replaced by the need for smarter roads.

Car ownership is a thing of the past.  There are only a few drivers now.

I actually saw someone driving on the superway yesterday.

I took my Tesla X out just for fun.

No one saw me.


* Mercedes Self Driving Car



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Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Electric Drive is Happening

A crucial part of moving away from carbon fuels is uuh, moving away from fossil fueled cars.  You can close every coal plant in the world but we would still be spewing CO2 out of our cars and trucks in prodigious amounts.  It's about 14% of our total total emissions. So, moving to electric drive is essential to a successful strategy.

This piece from the NRDC says it well:

"In a report released Thursday, Driving Out Pollution: How Utilities Can Accelerate the Market for Electric Vehicles, we explain how the electric industry could accelerate the national EV market by helping to deploy charging stations where drivers live, work and play; increasing public awareness of EVs’ economic and environmental benefits; and incentivizing drivers to charge their cars at times that will help bring more solar and wind energy onto the grid.

The report details how the electric industry can use spare capacity in the grid to charge our nation’s vehicle fleet, partner with independent EV charging companies to increase access to electricity as a transportation fuel and maximize fuel cost savings relative to gasoline by offering lower rates for charging during periods when the grid is underutilized and/or excess renewable power is available.

According to a recent paper published by the National Academy of Sciences, the share of new vehicles sold that are electric vehicles needs to grow from today’s 1 percent, to 40 percent or more by 2030 to avoid the worst impacts of global warming.

This is not an impossible task—almost 400,000 people put down $1,000 deposits for the next-generation, moderately priced Tesla during a two-week period earlier this year and drivers are expected to pack dealerships later this year when the mass market Chevrolet Bolt goes on sale." more

Thanks to the Volt, the Leaf, and Tesla, Electric Drive is happening.

In 2015, the number of electric cars on the road globally passed the one million threshold for the first time.

The rapid growth of the industry means that it is now the only technology sector on track to meet the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2C scenario.

According to Carbon Brief:

"In 2015, sales of electric cars around the world amounted to 477,000, taking the total volume up to 1.15m. Sales grew by 70 percent over 2014 levels. The IEA says that this means it is catching up with the rates needed to meet the 2DS.

In an interview with Carbon Brief, the IEA’s chief economist Laszlo Varro said:

“Electric cars are roughly 10 years behind wind and solar in terms of deployment and technology development. Still, electric car technology is also gathering momentum. Electric cars increasingly capture the consumer’s imagination.”

The U.S., China, Netherlands and Norway accounted for 70 percent of all the electric cars sold worldwide. In 2015, China became the world’s largest electric car market. But growth was also occurring outside these countries. The number of countries with a market share of electric cars greater than 1 percent grew from three in 2014 to six in 2015."

Everyday now I see more and more electric drive vehicles.  And the list of available EVs is getting pretty long.

I'm on my third year with my ELR now and it's a blast to drive.  Electric Drive spoils you.  And perhaps more importantly, it's better for you.  The other night at dinner, I blurted out that since I started using electric drive, my health is better.  Maybe we are all a little allergic to gasoline, and we just never put it together.  Over the last two and half years, I have filled my plug in hybrid up perhaps 10 times.  And in that period, I have not had the flu, nor have my allergies flared like they used to.

Imagine the true health value of reduced hydrocarbons in the air that we breathe.

Now imagine the value of zero hydrocarbons in the air we breathe.

More importantly,  imagine what we might save.

Our lungs? Our minds? Our auto-immune systems?

Perhaps even

Our World.


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Saturday, April 30, 2016

The Ordained

A long time friend and cartoonist left this cartoon on my desk the other morning after spending the night in my B no B hotel home.  It pretty much says it:

The next day, he sent me this one:

I first published Charlie Loving's cartoons over 40 years ago.  Back then, he was doing a Nuncio Narc 13 cartoon series in the RAG, our underground newspaper. Nuncio was an incompetent DEA agent who was always finding himself in laughable situations.  Since those days, Charlie has been a weatherman, a sportscaster, a mud salesman, a TV station builder, and  the list just goes on.

Most importantly, I rode with Charlie the first time we drove to Real de Catorce where he lived for a few years.  It was Charlie Loving who turned me on to Humberto, and Ed, and Charlie and Cora, and all my many friends in that enchanted town 9000 feet high in the state of San Luis Potosi.

Now he lives west of Leakey, Texas with his wife Rae, oddly enough in Real County.

And he still draws and paints everywhere he goes, at every time of day or night.

You can reach him on facebook as Charles Igor Loving.


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Thursday, March 31, 2016

March Mania

Most of us look forward to March Madness, especially if we are B ball fans.  We get to watch the NCAA playoffs as 64 teams turn into 4 until one finally wins.  This year it was Villanova.

But every four years we have super Tuesday and the big primaries in March.

And this year, it is indeed madness.

How a substantial number of Republicans can vote for a guy who is  (or was) a casino owner is way beyond my power to add or detract.  Here is a guy with some of the most god awful taste known to  bad taste.  He has had 3 wives, with the most recent one posing in the nude in his jet with fur and jewels.  Now that's a first lady I can get behind.

His money came from his Dad who made his money in Brooklyn leasing his apartments to white people.  One of his most famous tenants who lived in Beach Haven wrote a song about him after he left in disgust.

I suppose
    Old Man Trump knows
    Just how much
    Racial Hate
    he stirred up
    In the bloodpot of human hearts
    When he drawed
    That color line
    Here at his
    Eighteen hundred family project ....
 Woodie Guthrie 

When his son decided to join his Dad in business, the first thing he did was use Daddy's contacts to get some public money.  His history is just as tawdry as his art collections and home decor.

According to Wikipedia:

In 1971, Trump moved to Manhattan, where he became involved in larger construction projects, and used attractive architectural design to win public recognition.[41] Trump initially came to public attention in 1973 when he was accused by the Justice Department of violations of the Fair Housing Act in the operation of 39 buildings, including false "no vacancy" statements, and sham leases presenting higher rents to minority applicants, to facilitate the denial of housing to racial minorities.

Trump settled the charges in 1975 without admitting guilt, saying he was satisfied that the agreement did not "compel the Trump organization to accept persons on welfare as tenants unless as qualified as any other tenant."[43] The Trump Organization was again in court several years later for violating terms of the settlement.[42] 

Now this is real presidential material.  Yet, look at his delegate count:

And here is the end of March and early April

Amy Goodman and others ask:

"Fascism: Could it happen here?" That’s a question increasingly being raised as Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump continues his bid for the White House. People as varied as former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, actor George Clooney, comedian Louis C.K. and Anne Frank’s stepsister Eva Schloss have suggested Trump is a fascist. Earlier this month, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto criticized Trump by invoking the fascist dictators Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini."

AMY GOODMAN: What is fascism?

ROBERT PAXTON: Well, fascism is a mass nationalist movement intended to restore a country that’s been damaged or is in decline, by expansion, by violent attacks on enemies, internal as well as external enemies, and measures of authority, the replacement of democracy by an authoritarian dictatorship.

Make America Great Again.

This is March Mania.

The Democrats have been fun too.

Bernie is giving Hillary a real run for the money.

And he has actually raised a lot of it.

But the coming General Election between Clinton and Trump

is going to be Hell.

I could write a lot about this but I won't.

It's too painful.

For this March Mania will not end soon.

I miss Barack Obama more and more each passing day,

and we still have him being the great president that he has been.

He has been dignified and smart,

and measured and responsible,

and a great gift to this nation

and to the World.


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Monday, February 29, 2016

Leap Year

Winters in Austin are often my favorite season.  It's a little bit chilly, occasionally a little cold, but it doesn't last very long.  Every now and then it actually freezes or snows.  But this winter has been beautiful.  Cool enough to wear a sweater and jacket but nice enough to be outside almost everyday.

It has certainly been great convertible weather.  But the dark side of this silver lining is this.

February was the hottest February on record.  Here is the Guardian's take:

Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking 
even to climate scientists

February 2016 was likely the hottest month in thousands of years, as we approach the 2°C danger limit.

“Stunning,” “wow,” “shocker,” “bombshell,” “astronomical,” “insane,” “unprecedented”– these are some of the words climate scientists have used to describe the record-shattering global surface temperatures in February 2016clip

To put the current temperatures into context, prior to last October, monthly global surface temperatures had not been more than 0.96°C hotter than the 1951–1980 average, according to NASA. The past 5 months have been 1.06°C, 1.03°C, 1.10°C, 1.14°C, and 1.35°C hotter than that average, absolutely destroying previous records. Estimates from NOAA are in broad agreement with those from NASA.

Right now, the Earth’s average surface temperature is hotter than it’s been in thousands of years; potentially even longer. clip

Last December, 195 countries signed the COP21 international climate agreement in Paris. Graham Readfearn summarized the agreement for The Guardian:

The guts of the agreement hang off the so-called “long-term goal” that commits almost 200 countries to hold the global average temperature to “well below 2°C” above pre-industrial levels and to “pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”.
Depending on how exactly we define “pre-industrial,” February temperatures were between 1.5 and 2°C hotter than those in pre-industrial times. So, we’re already starting to tread on thin ice, in the range that the global community has deemed dangerously hot."  more

And YET, we have a major political party in the United States that continues to place its collective head in the sand on the issue.

Other big news on the climate scene comes from Jim Hansen in a paper published in the European Science Journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

Quoting from the New York Times:

"The nations of the world agreed years ago to try to limit global warming to a level they hoped would prove somewhat tolerable. But a group of leading climate scientists warned Tuesday that permitting a warming of that magnitude would actually be highly dangerous.

The likely consequences would include killer storms stronger than any in modern times, the disintegration of large parts of the polar ice sheets, and a rise of the sea sufficient to begin drowning the world’s coastal cities before the end of this century, the scientists declared.

“We’re in danger of handing young people a situation that’s out of their control,” said James E. Hansen, the retired NASA climate scientist who led the new research.  clip

Hansen argues that society is in such grave peril that he feels morally compelled to go beyond the normal role played by a scientist and to sound a clear warning. That stance has made him a hero to college students fighting climate change, but some fellow scientists say they believe he has opened himself to the charge that he is skewing his scientific research for political purposes.

"The nations of the world agreed to try to limit the warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2 degrees Celsius, above the pre-industrial level, though they have yet to agree on any program remotely ambitious enough to achieve that goal. The Earth has already warmed by about half that amount, with the consequence that virtually all land ice on the planet has started to melt and that the oceans are rising at an accelerating pace."

The paper by Hansen and 18 co-authors dwells on the last time the Earth warmed naturally, about 120,000 years ago, when the temperature reached a level estimated to have been only slightly higher than today. Much of the polar ice disintegrated then, and scientists have established that the sea level rose 20-30 feet. more

I remember 35 years ago when Dan Rather reported that the Reagan EPA had determined that climate change was going to be a danger to global well being in perhaps as little as 50 years.  In that report, President Reagan's own EPA called for a plan which would outlaw coal  by the year 2000, while placing a 300% carbon tax on oil and gas. It also called for a ban on shale oil.

Now with Renewable Energy and electric vehicles available at prices that could have been only dreamed of 35 years ago, we have the tools we need to meet this challenge.

So we must leap now.

And we have 4 Leap years to do it.

And YET, we have a major political party in the United States that continues to place its collective head in the sand on the issue.










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Sunday, January 31, 2016

Cheap Oil is Expensive

In January, while I was enjoying a sustained retreat from all things business, a rather large international event occurred.


Yes, the price of oil which has been as high as 140.00 dollars a barrel eight years ago, had gone from 90 to 100 dollars a barrel 18 months ago, to the mid forties in late December.  It rallied back into the sixty dollar range last spring, but headed back to the forties within a few months.

Then this January, it went to $27.00.

Now, for those of you who don't care the least about the price of crude oil except for how it affects your pocket book at the gas station, this post is not really for you.  No, this post is for those of you out there who care about the cost of energy because you know that cheap oil makes electric cars less desirable.  Cheap oil tricks car and truck buyers into buying big trucks and inefficient cars.  And if oil is cheap because there is more supply than demand, then the odds that there is also going to be more natural gas is likely.  And that has happened too.

And so, in a few months after oil prices collapsed  natural gas prices in the US went from $4.50 to $2.00/ MCF and even below.  Cheap natural gas is good for electric rates here in Texas, but it makes new solar and wind additions a little less appealing, especially if you think these super low decade record breaking prices will continue well beyond the near future.


Well, of course that's not what is happening.  If you read the trades and the other financial rags, you are told that the Saudi's are in a market share war with the American frackers.  And that might well be true.  American oil production has gone from 5 million barrels a day in 2010 to 9.6 million BPD in 2015, a truly impressive increase in domestic production.  And of course, most of this comes from horizontal drilling in the various shale plays.

In just five years, the Americans had caught up with Saudi oil production.  Americans imports of oil began to go down.  (but not by 4.5 million)

And so what did the Saudi's do?

They increased their production by 1 million barrels a day.  They traded protecting the price of oil for protecting their market share.

 Here is the story from Oil

Conventional Wisdom
"Conventional wisdom has it that the Saudis are focused primarily on crushing the U.S. shale industry. In this view, the Saudis blame the U.S. for the supply-demand imbalance that began to make itself felt in 2014. U.S. production data seems to support this. Between 2009 and 2014, U.S. crude and NGLs output increased nearly 4 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia’s increased only 1.64 million barrels per day, Canada’s 1.06 million, Iraq’s 0.9 million, and Russia’s 0.7 million (Saudi data doesn’t include NGLs).

In addition, the Saudis, among many others, believed that U.S. shale would be the most vulnerable to Saudi strategy, given relatively high production costs compared to Saudi production costs and shale’s rapid decline rates and the need therefore repeatedly to reinvest in new wells to maintain output."

But in the last 18 months, despite idled rigs by the hundreds and layed off employees by the hundred thousands, American production has continued to grow.

Until about six months ago.

Starting last September, production leveled off.  And now American crude oil production has fallen about 500,000 barrels a day back down to 9.1  million barrels  a day.

Now understand,  the total global market for oil is not quite 100 million barrels a day.  (96)  And it's generally understood that the oil market is over supplied by about 2 million barrels a day.  Now, even a fifth grader with an above C average in math knows that 9 million times 100 dollars is more that 10 million at 30.00 dollars.

It's almost $600 million more...a day.

This chart below shows American imports.


And it shows that Saudi imports with the US have remained about the same at 1 to 1.4 million barrels a day.  And it shows that even though American production has grown by 4.6 million barrels a day, our imports have only gone down by less than 2 million.

There are lots of other things that make this oil price collapse even more interesting.

One is the strength of the dollar.  Since oil is only traded in dollars,  a stronger dollar means that a big part of the drop in oil prices is actually a strong dollar.

Another is the huge deal made by Congress in December which traded continued renewable energy tax credits for the end on the ban on US crude oil exports.  This will effectively reduce the difference in price between West Texas crude and the higher international bench mark Brent oil. 

Another big consideration is the Russians.  Putin is hurting from the Saudi's actions.  And the Ruple is in the toilet. Are they sending a signal to him? And to their Allies?

Do they want a a cease fire in Syria?  And an agreement in Yemen?

And WHO are THEY?

Cheap Oil is Expensive


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