Where the Future Is

 

Most of my immediate family goes to Idaho to ski about this time of year leaving me at home to piddle around and stay up late reading or writing early into the morning.  My current mind challenge is trying to get my hands around the spectacular growth in Artificial Intelligence in the last  year and the resource and political  implications of it all. 

But last night, I was watching (actually binging) a new civil war series called the Gray House.  At around 3:00 having had enough of the spymaster story of the Confederate White House apparently named Gray House, I did my oral care and hopped into my solitary, super comfy bed.  Often, when I sleep alone, I like to leave NPR on as company and as an aural filler.  I lit the essential oil candle and turned off the bed lights behind the headboard, laid my head down, and then heard something about Drumph having just made a statement on his Truth Social account that he and Bebe just bombed Iran. 

I jumped up, flipped open my mini, and watched my normal center left news networks and yup, right there from Mar a Lago, was the POTUS in a white USA baseball cap telling the Iranians and the rest of the world that he is giving them a chance to be free; but for now to stay in doors because there is going to be a lot of bombs out there. 

And now, that's all there is on our media and will be for a while.  Most of the actual pictures come from Al Jazzerra right now.  The Fairmount in Dubai got whacked by a drone, and the Navy took some shots on their 5th fleet.  But we got our man, or at least the Israeli Air Force did.  And Khamenei, their supreme leader is now officially a martyr. We apparently also got a school full of young girls.

And now the Revolutionary Guards are warning of an intense offensive to come.

In the meantime, the Pentagon is trying to force the creators of Claude to allow their AI to not be restricted by their terms of service regarding AI homicide.  The Justice Department excluded FBI reports that Drumph forced a teenager's head onto his mushroom which she bit, and then he socks her with his fist. And we can't forget that the EPA just rescinded the endangerment finding regarding CO2 and its regulatory foundation for climate change policy.

All of this while the warnings regarding AI go unheeded:

Industry warnings regarding AI have escalated significantly as of February 2026, ranging from immediate economic disruption to long-term existential threats. High-profile executives and researchers from

OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind have reached a consensus that AI risks should be treated with the same urgency as pandemics or nuclear war.

Anthropic CEO, Dario Amodei,  warned in May 2025 that AI could eliminate up to half of all entry-level white-collar jobs, potentially spiking unemployment to 10–20% within five years.

In late February 2026, Jack Dorsey’s Block announced plans to cut over 4,000 jobs—nearly half its staff—citing AI-driven productivity gains.

 Financial institutions like Citigroup have cautioned that AI implementation may lead to higher unemployment and deflation. Some analysts warn of a "vibe coding" shift that could render traditional software roles obsolete.    

 This from Wikipedia:

Experts disagree on whether artificial general intelligence (AGI) can achieve the capabilities needed for human extinction. Debates center on AGI's technical feasibility, the speed of self-improvement,^[7] and the effectiveness of alignment strategies.^[8] 

Concerns about superintelligence have been voiced by researchers including Geoffrey Hinton,^[9] Yoshua Bengio,^[10] Demis Hassabis,^[11] and Alan Turing,^[a] and AI company CEOs such as Dario Amodei (Anthropic),^[14] Sam Altman (OpenAI),^[15] and Elon Musk (xAI).^[16] 

 In 2022, a survey of AI researchers with a 17% response rate found that the majority believed there is a 10 percent or greater chance that human inability to control AI will cause an existential catastrophe.^[17][18] 

In 2023, hundreds of AI experts and other notable figures signed a statement declaring, "Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war".^[19] 

Following increased concern over AI risks, government leaders such as United Kingdom prime minister Rishi Sunak^[20] and United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres^[21] called for an increased focus on global AI regulation.  

Researchers warn that an "intelligence explosion"—a rapid, recursive cycle of AI self-improvement—could outpace human oversight and infrastructure, leaving no opportunity to implement safety measures. In this scenario, an AI more intelligent than its creators would recursively improve itself at an exponentially increasing rate, too quickly for its handlers or society at large to control.

Something tells me that Drumph and his DoW boy wonder have a plan for Iran.  And it probably came from Claude. ( or one of his brothers)

And sooner than you think, our boots on the ground may not be leather.

I told my grandson that all my life I've wondered where the future is.

And now it's here. 

And it's just like the movies. 

 

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Il Duche

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We were at a memorial for a friend of a friend yesterday.  It was held in a west Austin country club right on Lake Austin with a great lap pool and work out facilities. It had survived the long freeze well.  Gene Anne, the woman who had passed, was married to John the Oncologist.  

So as you might imagine, there were a lot of Doctors there including my partner. It was a Civil affair, not a Priest or a robe in site. Doctors, lots of Doctors.  

We were talking to David, one of my favorites because he actually was on the basketball team at UCLA in the late sixties during those glory days.  Coach Wooten told him to get a good education and he did.  As we chatted, we talked about retirement, but he couldn't imagine it, not right now, not while we have this dictator in our country.   

Yes, there you have it.  If a aging Doctor in a swanky West Austin Tennis Club knows, I guess most of us know it. Like David, We probably try to avoid thinking about it.  

This North Carolina professor knows it too.

Donald the First: Trump the dictator has arrived 

We have launched a war against Venezuela — apparently because we can. We have provided no justification, no rationale, no candor. Their oil, we claim, is now ours. We’ll sell it and, Donald Trump explains, the “money will be controlled” by him. If the Venezuelans don’t bend quickly enough to our command, we’ll kill more of them. It’s like a video game to us. You know, like blowing up the boats. The U.S. military has proven its mastery — in an illegal and blatantly unconstitutional and brutal cause. 

Next, Trump explains, “we’re going to do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not.” If we “don’t do it the easy way, we’re going to do it the hard way.” Cuba and Mexico are, perhaps, after that. As Stephen Miller oozes — who is going to stop us? It’s a real world out there. “You can talk about international niceties, but we live in a world governed by strength, by force, by power,” Miller says. The strong, apparently, take what they want and the weak, in turn, bear what they must. (I think the ancient Greeks said that.) The Western Hemisphere is reportedly ours. So is any other nation that has anything we want. The only limit is Trump’s moral compass. Imagine, if you can.

ICE continues to terrorize Democratic cities — killing a 37-year-old mother in Minneapolis, because, in this new era, that’s how you look manly, lethal. (a ICU nurse would follow her) We advertise for agents on TV. Give ‘em signing bonuses. Le mercenaire. 

The president of the United States extorts like Al Capone. 

Universities, law firms, corporations, media folks, researchers, artists, nonprofits, cities (Democratic ones), states (blue ones) and countries (weak ones). If you don’t do what he wants, he’ll bring bombers and gunships to your shore to see if that changes your mind. Maybe he’ll take the money, or maybe he’ll give it to his family. 

The corruption is so outlandish, we’ve quit keeping track. A surpassingly gutless House and Senate bless the effort. Their only apparent actual oath is to Donald J. Trump. A supine Supreme Court utters immunity. There is, literally, nothing beyond his power. And if there was, he could hire goons to do it and then pardon them.

We have fretted, as a nation, over whether Trump would become a dictator. 

He has. 

Donald The First. 

Anyone who thinks he and his crew will surrender power is three shades past delusional. At least the mystery is gone. The only question is whether he will be cabined, suppressed, rejected — legally — by the constitutional democracy he seeks to undo. That will require an actual Congress, resolute state governments, faithful and independent federal courts, but, most of all, a massively engaged, courageous and patriotic citizenry. It’s not yet clear whether we can manage to deliver these undoubted and foundational requisites. I wish I knew the answer. I do know it’s the most important question we face. 

Maybe that we’ll ever face.

Surveying my home — a state that I love and that counts for the nation — the North Carolina Republican Party must now denounce President Trump. If they don’t, all Tar Heels, citizens and officeholders, must abandon the party. This day. 

There could be no stronger proof that an institution is unfit to govern than the continued embrace of Donald Trump — the gravest single threat to constitutional democracy in American history. No patriot can support dictatorship. And no honest human can any longer pretend that’s not what is happening here.

* Gene Nichol is a professor of law at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.

Last night at dinner, we talked about it.  We talked about the horrible movie made for Il Duce's wife. We talked about how the Europeans don't like us anymore.  We talked about how screwed up we are with Canada and Mexico.  I said we now have a dictator and everyone just simply agreed and we went on about our holidays.

The Atlantic says:

President Drumph prosecutes his political opponents; deports immigrants, including some here legally, to foreign prisons without due process; solicits tribute payments from corporations and foreign governments; deploys soldiers to American cities that are not, in fact, in civil-war-level chaos; and puts his name and image on government buildings that quite obviously don’t belong to him.

So, a question: What do you call this form of government? Authoritarian? Kleptocratic? Totalitarian? Fascist?

A Dictatorship 

Read it from the man who lived it. 

“The definition of fascism is the marriage of corporation and state ” Il Duce said.

It is the core concept of

corporatism, where the state and large private entities form a symbiotic partnership to control the economy and society. 

And the best of us demonstrate against it. 

But we are like indoor cats chasing a laser beam

that came from space to change our elections. 

And we eat our canned gourmet meals.

And play on our high rise kitty condos.

And crap in our self cleaning internet connected sandbox.

And in the distance I hear drumming.

and Minnesota is on my mind. 

And Il Duce is alive. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A New Year

 

 

As the New Year headed our way, my little family made its way to Europe, specifically, the Iberian Peninsula.   Over the years, we have spent the New Year all over the place.  We have done the big cities, NYC, Mexico City, San Francisco, LA/Las Vegas, Austin, Buenos Aires, Paris, London, and now Madrid. And we have done the smallest hole in the walls from "Bernies" in Port Aransas, Texas to Real de Catorce, Mexico.  

In Catorce, we used to celebrate the New Year with 50 or 60 international friends from all over the Globe.

After dinner in El Real, we would go to the top of the Hotel and experience the greatest, most dangerous fireworks extravanganza at close range.  The six inch  firework mortars would suck the air from around you as everyone on that roof realized that this unregulated display was not only top notch, it was also a 7 or 8 on the Peligroso scale.  The finale was a Gyro-Gearloose contraption made of bamboo by an aging  Matehualan craftsman down in the valley.  It would light up and spin and slowly but surely ignite all of its arms and appendages,  spraying rivers of sparks in every direction, and then all of a sudden, the very top crown would ignite, start spinning at high speed, and then lift off into the heavens to the screams of delight from the equally lit crowd.

We would find it smoldering on someones concrete roof in due time. 

But before we made it to Madrid, we spent 4 days in Lisbon. The last time I was in Lisbon, it seemed a little sleepy but well maintained.  Perhaps the most picturesque city in Western Europe, it has grown to become a destination for tourists of all stripes.  The restaurants are many, the Hotels are modernized, and with the shops and views from the hills of Barrio Alto and the history of the Castle of St George and Alfama on the opposing hill to the north, the historic old town is nicely knitted into the larger metro area. 

Just south of Alfama is the back road up to the Castle.  On the way up is a great Brunch place called Dear Breakfast.  Up the hill a little further is the Cathedral of Lisbon and across the street is the Museum of Resistance and Freedom.

It was there that we were reminded of the recent history of Portugal during its fascist period beginning before World War II.  

Portugal's history of repression, particularly under the

Estado Novo (New State) dictatorship (1933-1974) led by António de Oliveira Salazar, was characterized by strict censorship, pervasive secret police (PIDE/DGS) surveillance, torture, imprisonment of dissidents (like at Aljube prison), suppression of free speech, and control over media and political life to maintain colonial power and traditional values. 

This authoritarian rule, a continuation of earlier military dictatorships, ended with the bloodless Carnation Revolution in 1974, which ushered in democracy. 

The Museum WAS Aljube prison.  And many of the inhuman cells were still intact.  The place gave me the eeby-jeebies. The fact that it was just a few yards from the Cathedral of Lisbon was not just a brutal juxtaposition, 

It is a metaphor of the unholy alliance of church and state. 

The Portuguese people have a long history of courage and exploration.  They were the first to navigate the seas beyond the safety of visual reference.  Thus we have Brazil.

Portuguese maritime explorations resulted in numerous territories and maritime routes recorded by the Portuguese on journeys during the 15th and 16th centuries. Portuguese sailors were at the vanguard of European exploration, chronicling and mapping the coasts of Africa and Asia, then known as the East Indies, Canada and Brazil (the West Indies), in what became known as the Age of Discovery. 

And their technology was advanced:

Portuguese nautical science evolved from the successive expeditions and experience of the Portuguese pilots. It led to a fairly rapid evolution, creating an elite of astronomers, navigators, mathematicians and cartographers. Among them stood Pedro Nunes with studies on how to determine latitude by the stars, and João de Castro, who made important observations of magnetic declination over the entire route around Africa.  

Today Portugal and Lisbon specifically is a model of urban design and commitment to that 500 year history of exploration.

But like the US, Western Europe is facing the large movements of peoples as climate change and a new age of political repression collide.  The Trump administration has claimed that around 140,000 people had been deported as of April 2025, and recent figures are closer to 600,000.

And, the number of people in immigration detention in the US has hit an all-time high according to data published by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement  (ICE).  The data, which comes out every two weeks, shows that as of December 2025, ICE held more than 68,400 people.

And as in the US, the flow of peoples across nation states is also moving those who are seeing their streets and towns change in complexion rightward.

And that explains Drumph.

I'm reading Bruno Latour's book, Down to Earth on climate and politics. In it, he says, "By pulling out of the Paris Accord, Drumph explicitly triggered, if not a world war, at least a war over what constitutes the theatre of operations. 

We Americans don't belong to the same Earth as you.  

Yours may be threatened; ours won't be" 

We made our way to Madrid for our New Year's Eve celebration in a place called Ginger.  

We all wore our funny hats and masks, and blew our little horns. 

For a New Year. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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On our Doorstep

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Magritte 

 

 

 

 

We had four out of five of my partner's brothers for Thanksgiving this year. Besides the usual boisterous cacophony of Idaho testosterone which I have learned to accept if not genuinely enjoy, a new meme has arrived in these circles. For the  American right has embraced the idea that to go forward with our current pace towards artificial intelligence, society must give up on removing carbon from our civilization and instead embrace whatever we must to power the new technological race for superiority in cyberspace. In short, electric power must be nuclear, or coal, or perhaps batteries.

Powering chips with chips powered by the sun, although elegant, is seen as unrealistic.

It was 21 years ago that I posted about the Singularity. 

The concept of a technological singularity as it is known today is largely credited to Dr. Vernor Vinge, a mathematician, computer scientist, and science fiction author who is best known for his Hugo award-winning novel, A Fire Upon the Deep, and for his 1993 essay "The Technological Singularity", in which he argues that exponential growth in technology will reach a point beyond which we cannot even speculate about the consequences.

Vinge's essay contains the following frequently-quoted statement:

"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly thereafter, the human era will be ended."  Vinge wrote that thirty three years ago.  Now hold that thought while I gently change the channel.

In Texas, we have demonstrated that Renewable Energy and electronic stationary storage coupled with electric vehicle mobile storage supported with  modest amounts of legacy energy can meet the needs of an advanced society at a price that we can afford. To prove it, AI factories are popping up everywhere and putting pressure on our 90 GW grid.  And they are impressive consumers of our low prices.

But no Texan voted to bring these behemoths in to suck our affordable power.

This from Oil Price. (yes, Oil Price)

"The Cloud" might be the greatest branding trick in history. It sounds fluffy, ethereal, and notably light.

It implies that our digital lives…our emails, our crypto wallets, our endless scrolling…exist in some vaporous layer of the atmosphere, detached from earthly constraints. But if you actually drive out to Loudoun County, Virginia, or stare at the arid plains of Altoona, Iowa, you realize the Cloud is actually just a very big, very loud, and very hot factory.

We’ve been telling ourselves a lovely story about the energy transition. We were retiring coal plants, building wind farms, and decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions. It was all going according to plan."

But in comes Nvidia and its H100 GPU which uses 100 kW instead of 10 kW 

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global electricity demand from data centers is projected to more than double by 2030. This is the same as the entire annual electricity use of a country like Japan.

The invisible hand is hitting a concrete wall.

We have effectively moved from powering a toaster to powering a neighborhood, all inside the same metal box. Air cooling…fans blowing over hot metal…doesn't work anymore. Air just isn't physically dense enough to move that much heat away.

We are now plumbing data centers like chemical refineries, running liquid coolant loops directly to the silicon die.

The irony is palpable. We spent billions trying to kill coal, only to have the most futuristic technology on earth, AI, throw it a lifeline. In places like Virginia or Kansas, utilities are delaying the retirement of coal plants. They simply cannot risk the grid instability when a gigawatt-scale data center comes online.

The "future" is being powered by the "past."

Amazingly, this is the view of an Oil and Gas Website.

Experts stress that the effects of climate change are not a distant future problem, but a present crisis that requires urgent and wide-ranging measures. And moving to a future where Climate Change management becomes subordinate  is a recipe for not only calamity, but authoritarianism. 

But AI must still be managed. And not all of AI's prophets see the future the same way.  The now defrocked Elon Musk has concerns.

He has repeatedly called AI “humanity’s biggest existential threat.”  He likens unchecked AI development to “summoning the demon,” emphasizing that once a super-intelligent entity exists, controlling it might be impossible if its goals diverge from ours. 

Key points from Musk’s cautionary outlook include:

1. AI Alignment: Ensuring AI goals match human values — no small task.
2. Regulatory Oversight: Musk urges proactive laws and guidelines akin to nuclear safety measures.
3. Human-AI Symbiosis: Through ventures like Neuralink, Musk aims to merge human intellect with AI, perhaps mitigating the risk of obsolescence.

The future is uncertain but undeniably fast-approaching. By investing in education, ethical governance, scenario planning, and collaborative innovation, we can guide these explosive developments toward a future that enhances human life without undermining it. Whether or not the singularity arrives in 2045 (or next Tuesday), the decisions we make today will shape how these technologies intersect with economics, society, and — ultimately — the core of our humanity. 

The recent ugly bill by the Rs made it illegal for states to regulate AI. We can thank the Plutocrats for that. 

AI must be required to comply with  Global Climate Change Agreements now and in the years ahead.

Our leaders must respond or be replaced.

Just listen to Bernie Sanders. 

Because the Singularity is on our doorstep. 

And a different World is on the other side. 

The winds of fate await. 

 

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Our Place of the Heart

  

 

 

It's like the very definition of visceral.

A wannabe tyrant destroys a national landmark in a matter of days.

Being the inveterate liar he is, we should have known that the promise to not touch it would be just as true as his statement to sailors in the Far East that 94% of the Gulf of Mexico borders US soil.

The number is closer to 40% depending on whether you think Cuba exist.

Mexico is just over 50%. 

This from Wikipedia and others:

The East Wing Colonnade of the Peoples House was not built 120 years ago, it was built  by President Thomas Jefferson when he added colonnaded terraces to the east and west sides of the White House.

Under President Andrew Jackson in 1834, running water was piped in from a spring and pumped up into the east terrace in metal tubes. These ran through the walls and protruded into the rooms, controlled by spigots. Initially, the water was for washing items, but soon the first bathing rooms were created, in the ground-level east colonnade. President Martin Van Buren had shower baths installed here. 

The East Wing of the White House complex was built in 1902 by Teddy Roosevelt and significantly expanded in 1942 by Franklyn Roosevelt.  It was then that the the Presidential Emergency Operations Center beneath the building was buried deep below the office space for the first lady and her staff, including the White House social secretary, correspondence staff, and the White House Graphics and Calligraphy Office.

The first small East Wing built in 1902 during the Theodore Roosevelt renovation served as an entrance for formal and public visitors during large social gatherings when it was necessary to accommodate many cars and carriages. Its primary feature was the long cloak room with spots for coats and hats of the ladies and gentlemen.

The two-story East Wing was designed by White House architect Lorenzo Winslow and Teddy's coatroom was integrated into the new building becoming the White House Family Theater. 

But it was Eleanor Roosevelt who made it a place for women. 

"It has long been a space of female power and a female niche in the White House," said Elizabeth Rees, a historian and research fellow at the University of Virginia's Miller Center. "With the West Wing being a traditionally male-dominated space, the East Wing was a unique physical space for women to work…and provided them with their own environment in which to flourish." 

In the 1960s, during the Kennedy administration, the first lady's staff expanded rapidly. 

"As mass media is on the rise and there's enormous press interest in this young, glamorous first lady and her small children, that interest necessitates that there is a press arm for the first lady to cover her activities and to spread all this information to the press," said Rees. 

"Betty Ford and earlier First Ladies were pretty much working out of their bedrooms, literally," said MaryAnne Borrelli, author of The Politics of the President's Wife. 

But Betty Ford understood that "If the West Wing is the mind of the nation, then the East Wing is the heart" 

During this time, Ford, a proponent of women's rights, argued for equal pay for her female staff and an end to sex-based discrimination in the East Wing, according to the White House Historical Association. 

However, it was First Lady Rosalynn Carter who in 1977 was the first to establish the Office of the First Lady in the East Wing. 

Modern first ladies have used the East Wing as a base to lead a number of initiatives aimed at improving the country.  Laura Bush led nationwide literacy campaigns out of the East Wing during her tenure as first lady in the early 2000s, while Michelle Obama ran her "Let’s Move" program to bolster public health under her husband's administration.

When the Electoral College cast their votes in 2016 for the candidate who came in 2nd place, many of us knew that he was unfit for the job. I told my partner that the Nation had succumbed to the lower centers of fear and hatred and that misogyny and racism had raised its ugly head from the dark waters of our national psyche. 

When he was removed 4 years later with 7 million more votes, I posted that the Wicked Witch was dead.  And that his memory would forever be scorned as he failed in the attempt to upend our 245 year history of the peaceful transfer of power.

I remember all those R's saying that this was it.

That they have had enough. 

But in his second impeachment,

We needed 10 more of them to put this scourge behind us

Because 57 Ayes against 43 No's was not enough,

And the Scourge returned with a vengeance 

And now he has demolished our Place of the Heart in less than a week.

In its place will stand a 90,000 square foot monument

to greed and wealth.

and Corruption. 

He says it will cost 300 million for 90,000 square feet.

That's 3,333 a  square foot. 

Nothing square about it. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Wake Up All

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

* 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last week, the major renewable energy groups that have brought Texas to be the leading renewable energy state in the country (yes I said Texas...RED Texas) had a luncheon in the Special Events Room at the Austin Public Library.

The  relatively new Library just off Cesar Chavez is worth a visit and the events room can hold several hundred folks handily.  The occasion was the 40th anniversary and formal recognition of the merger of the Texas Renewable Energy Industries Association and Clean Texas.  Given that it actually happened during the first days of Covid in the spring of 2020, there was not much fanfare for the merger.

Since the mid 80s, TREIA had been the leading proponent of Renewable Energy Policy in the State. Back then, Texas was just turning red, but not the kind of angry RED we have today.  Consequently, with an original push given by Governor Richards, we found open doors for making Texas an Energy state that included all forms of energy.  Those doors remained open even as we transitioned into the administrations of Governor Bush and Governor Perry. 

Consequently, the Renewable Energy Industry was able to make the argument that wind and solar fields from far west Texas should be connected to the Urban Centers in the center of the state, just like we built Farm to Market roads to bring farm products to market almost 100 years ago.  These electric transmission lines were called CREZ lines and their creation and funding was a critical element of the Texas plan. And that Texas plan came out of a series of reports that were created by the Sustainable Energy Development Council.  These reports dealt with energy in all the demand sectors and it estimated the amount of efficiency that could be mined as a result of smart energy management.

Now, Texas has over 50 GWs of Wind, 30 something GWs of Utility Solar, and almost 15 GWs of stationary storage.  This on a 90 GW peak load grid called ERCOT.  Among the greatest achievements TREIA  helped craft was an energy only-market and postage stamp wheeling rates.  That was what our producers needed to become highly competitive in the newly deregulated market and in the Nodal Market that would emerge.

Having been appointed to several state wide positions by Governors Richards and Bush, I was in the thick of all this.  Plus, I was also President or on the Executive Committee of TREIA for many of those critical years. And I was a Co-Founder with Russel Smith.

So the planners of the event honored me with a  Visionary Founder Award. And here are my short acceptance remarks:

40th Anniversary Award Remarks, September 23rd, 2025
 
Thank you…thank you. Thank you Raina, Lenae, Melissa, Hala,
 
And all of you.
 
Awards like this are truly special and they are so appreciated. But in many ways, they are also misleading and even a little bit hard on some. The good work we did 40 years ago was accomplished by more than just a handful of dedicated people.
 
Even though Margaret Meade said: 
 
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.”
 
It was almost 200 people who met at the Crest Inn in 1985 to start TREIA. It was exciting and there was so much future in front of us.
 
Surely some are here in this room today. (around 30 folks arise and  are recognized)

But even though we are gathered to honor the past, We need to use this time to contemplate the future. For the future  of our Industry faces uncertainty today,
 
Just like it did 40 years ago. 
 
And some of the predictions are pretty dire.
 
But some of them are not.
 
Here’s what the Sept 25 EIA ( Energy Information Administration) Report predicts:
 
We expect that total U.S. generation by the electric power sector will grow by 2.3% in 2025 and a further 3.0% next year. 
 
These growth rates are higher than expected at the beginning of the year when we forecast U.S. electricity generation would grow by an average of 1.5% each year. The higher growth in generation reflects colder-than-expected weather earlier in 2025 along with the incorporation of load growth assessments by grid operators in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and PJM systems.
 
Increasing electricity demand is being met by higher generation from most energy sources in 2025. We expect that utility-scale solar will grow the most, generating 33%, or 72 billion kilowatthours more electricity this year compared with 2024. 
 
New solar projects account for more than half of the new generating capacity expected to come online this year.
 
We expect wind will generate 4% more electricity in 2025 than it did in 2024, while we expect hydropower generation will grow by 2%.
 
We forecast that natural gas-fired power plants will generate 3% (61 BkWh) less electricity in 2025 than last year. In some regions, such as Texas and the Midwest, increasing generation from solar is also displacing some natural gas-fired generation.
 
Between now and 2026, the Short Term Outlook predicts that Gas will drop from 42 to 40 % of total generation, Renewables will grow  from 25% to 26%, nuclear remains flat at 18%, and coal still dropping falls to 16%.
 
We expect that total U.S. generation by the electric power sector will grow by 2.3% in 2025 and a further 3.0% next year. We expect that solar power will supply the largest share of the increase in both years.
 
They see GDP going up over 2% and WTI going down into the 50’s.
 
In closing I want to point out that some of us old die-hards have created the Historical Foundation for Texas Renewable Energy, also known as the Renewable Foundation, and we are archiving the 40 Years of work that got us where we are today.  Go to  the website and go back to the Newsletters in 92 when we got our first PUC Commissioner appointed, when the Utilities joined our ranks, and how we used the Governors STEPP project to create the policy that brought us an energy only market and the CREZ.
 
We’ve come a long way here in Texas.  We’ve got 40 GWs of Wind and 32 GWs of Solar, and 14 GWs of Storage on a 100 GW system.
 
If we work together we can stand tomorrow’s bad weather, because we know the climate is in our favor.
 
But I think we need to tell our story better.  Most do not recognize the sizable contribution of clean energy to their lives.  We need to fix that through organizations like this and other communication strategies. 

People need to know.
 
Thank you once again for this honor.
 
And now, allow me to do the honors and introduce Russel Smith, the Executive Director of TREIA for 3 decades." 

Yes, the Rs at the Texas State Capitol, and Drumph in DC are doing their best to slow this train down.   But the tracks are laid and the rest of the World knows that our current leadership is an embarrassment in this critical time of Climate Stabilization. 

His speech at the UN on Tuesday, the same day that I received my award will go down in History as colossal quackery    

But Hitler was an embarrassment until he proved that he was actually a menace.

And this Tuesday's likely government shutdown may prove to be more memorable than others. 

But as Yogi Berra said:

It's hard to Predict,

Especially if your talking about the Future. 

For we are in the hands of a foolish and cruel regime. 

I hope we Wake Up soon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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 * Poster by James Montgomery Flagg 1917