Friday, June 06, 2008

There will be Blood

Just when you thought the rise in oil prices might be slowing down a little, we had a 16.00 dollar barrel uptick in the last two days. Oil used to trade at 16 back before Bush.

Here's the story from Bloomberg:

Oil Rises to Record on Weakening Dollar, Morgan Stanley Outlook
By Robert Tuttle

June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil surged more than $10 a barrel to a record as the dollar weakened after the U.S. unemployment rate grew the most in two decades and Morgan Stanley said prices may reach $150 within a month.

Oil may ``spike'' because ``Asia is taking an unprecedented share'' of Middle East exports, Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer wrote. The dollar weakened against the euro after unemployment rose to 5.5 percent, signaling the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to increase interest rates.

Oil also rose after an Israeli minister said an attack on Iran may be necessary.

Oil is ``being used as a hedge by speculative buyers for the weakened dollar,'' said Gary Adams, vice chairman of oil and gas consulting at Deloitte & Touche LLP in Houston. ``We are seeing that the price will continue to go up as investors look for alternatives.''

Crude oil for July delivery rose $10.75, or 8.4 percent, to settle at $138.54 a barrel at 2:48 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Today's increase was the biggest gain in dollar terms ever and the largest on a percentage basis since June 1996. Oil rose $11.33 to an all-time high $139.12 a barrel during trading. " (*clip)

With Asia taking an ``unprecedented'' share of Middle East oil, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil may reach $150 a barrel by July 4, Morgan Stanley's Slorer said in his report. (more)

Most of this is demand on constrained supplies, but some of the increase is based on fear of loss of supply. Here's that story from the BBC:

Analysis: Growing talk of Iran attack

Last December American intelligence agencies said they had "high confidence" that in late 2003 Iran had stopped trying to build nuclear weapons.

That seemed to end much of the talk about an American - or Israeli - attempt to destroy the facilities that Iran has developed for what it insists is a purely peaceful nuclear programme.

Plenty of influential people in the Middle East, Europe and the United States think an attack on Iran would have consequences potentially as disastrous as the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

It would also send oil prices, already through the roof, into orbit. " (more)

You see, this war thing is a win win win deal for the oil guys.

Even if everyone else loses, loses, loses.

They use public funds to control the oil through the armed forces,

Then they force the occupied country to surrender 80% of their oil,

as they graciously offer 20% royalties,

and in the meantime, the increased fear and speculation in the market

causes the price to go through the roof.

Like the movie based on Upton Sinclair's story of oil proclaimed,

There will be Blood.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

The only way we have a chance of getting a share of this is to start a pool for the date of the attack on Iran. Let's see, What would be the optimal time to have the most effect on the election in November???


9:43 AM  

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