Saturday, October 31, 2020

Minority Rule

It's been going on for a while now.  Most of us remember that dreary day in December 2000 when the Supreme Court of the United States instructed the state of Florida to stop counting votes as Bush's lead in the recount of the state dropped to 537 votes.  Thus, Albert Gore would win the popular vote that year by a half a million votes and yet  lose the election by five electoral votes 271 to 266; thus making him the first person since Grover Cleveland (another D) in 1888 to win the popular vote but lose in the Electoral College.

Republicans have lost the popular vote in six out of the seven last presidential elections.  Yet they now have a super majority in the Supreme Court. When Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed to the United States Supreme Court by a vote of 50–48,  Only one Democrat, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, voted with the  Republican majority, which represented just 44 percent of the country’s population

Indeed, when Americans last voted for their senators (over a period of six years), Democrats won the popular vote by more than 8 percent. It’s that disproportionality—and the reality that a majority of the country’s population is represented by just 18 senators that demonstrates that both the Presidency and the Senate can be dominated by a Republican minority.

Because of gerrymandering, even the House of Representatives no longer conforms fully to principles of majority representation. At least one report says Democrats need to win by double digits to gain a majority. By contrast, Republicans could win just 45 to 46 percent of the overall House vote and still hold on to the lower chamber.

 And they are a minority.

 As of May 2020, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, 25% identified as Republican, and 40% as Independent.[3] However, polling showed that 50% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 38% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

And we wonder why the R's want to suppress the vote?

And why Democrats want everyone to vote?

There is a general rule that turnouts of 60% or above will bring a Democratic victory.  Turnouts below 55% almost always bring a Republican President.  Between 55% and 59 % is a toss up. Turnout in 2000 was under 55%.  2016 turnout was 57%. Total votes in 2016 was over 130 million. (Hillary 66 M, Trump 63M)

As of tonight, is looks like the early vote will get close to 100 million, well beyond any other year -primarily due to the Pandemic.  In Texas, there are already more early votes than votes in all of 2016. This may make Texas actually in play as a battleground state.

This from the Austin Independent:

"Texas has burst into the national headlines over the last few days for something absolutely, totally unprecedented — high voter turnout. More Texans voted early this year than voted in the entire 2016 election — that is more than the 2016 early, mail-in and election day vote combined. As readers have probably seen, this transformed Texas into a swing state in the 2020 presidential election. Move over Florida and Pennsylvania. (clip)

Trump simply cannot win a second term without winning Texas. And, I simply cannot avoid pointing out that back on March 1, in the Independent’s first issue, I wrote

Imagine if Texas went blue: the networks would likely call the race right then. . . If and when it did happen, people all over the nation, all over the world, would burst into the streets to celebrate. The focus would then shift to whether Donald Trump will accept the verdict of American voters and peacefully vacate the White House come January 20, 2021.”

The Cook Report says that Biden is going to win. They even believe that the Senate will flip.

Michael Moore even says it.

Go vote and bring a friend.

Let's end minority rule.

Before it gets really scary.

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