Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Good things from Bad things









As of now,  the FPOTUS is spending 4 days a week in a small courtroom flanked by his attorneys.  Occassionally, he goes to sleep.  Ever day he's in court, he finishes with a statement from the courtroom hallway often repeating his many misstatements about almost everything.

Meanwhile, all of Washington sans the FPOTUS gathered at the Hilton for the annual toney Correspondents Dinner. This from the Hollywood Reporter:

Before the event began, hundreds of protesters had gathered outside the Hilton in the Adams Morgan neighborhood of Washington to confront attendees and encourage journalists to boycott the event. The demonstrators shouted about the deaths of journalists in Gaza as they covered the ongoing conflict there and held banners while chanting “Free, free Palestine.” Biden was also reportedly confronted by a smaller group of protesters calling for a ceasefire on Israel’s deadly ground campaign in Gaza. 

Later in the evening, Biden took to the podium where he fired off a relentless series of gags that went after headliner Jost (addressing the SNL writer’s wife, Scarlett Johansson: “Clearly, you’re the funny one in the family”); his presumed opponent Donald Trump in this year’s presidential race (“My vice president actually endorses me…”); and even acknowledged the hot-button issue of his age, which as the first octogenarian presidential candidate is a central issue for voters (“Yes, I’m a grown man running against a six-year-old”).

Colin Jost followed with some pretty good jokes that for some reason didn't really land.  (The best ones were about his wife)

Yet in the end, Jost turned it around with simple sentimentality and by offering a sincere moment directly to the U.S. president. Bringing up his late firefighter grandfather, who died this past year, Jost told Biden that he reminds him of the man who had voted for the president in 2020. 

My grandpa voted for decency, and decency is why we’re all here tonight. 

Decency is how we’re able to be here tonight,” Jost said. 

He also made a quip about how this decent man is not beating his serial lying, court appearing, hate mongering, word mangling, supreme court corrupted, narcissistic opponent like the Globetrotters would dominate the Washington Generals. 

How could the race be anywhere close to tied?

Here is Simon Rosenberg's take:

As I reviewed last night, here’s my basic take on the 2024 election right now: 

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a very strong case for re-election.

The Democratic Party is strong, unified, raising tons of money and winning elections all across the country.

And what do they have? They have Trump, the ugliest political thing any of us has ever seen, leading a party far more a raging dumpster fire than a well- oiled political machine.

In 538’s national Presidential polling average Biden has gained 1.7 pts against Trump in recent weeks, and the general election head to head is essentially tied. 

We’ve also seen a 3.5 pt gain for Democrats in recent months in 538’s Congressional Generic (which party will you support for Congress), and Dems now have a slight lead though it too is essentially tied. 

A majority of the national polls this week have the Biden tied or ahead, with 3 - Marist, Ipsos and FAU showing small Biden leads. It’s a close, competitive election with Dems gaining some ground in recent weeks.

We’ve seen this dynamic - Republicans repeatedly struggling - show up in 2024 now too. We saw it in the Tom Keen January special election in Orlando; in the Suozzi win in February; in Alabama a few weeks ago; in NY-26 Tuesday; and most importantly we’ve seen it again and again in Trump’s Presidential primary performances, where he has repeatedly underperformed public polling and Haley repeatedly performed far better than anyone expected, even after she dropped out of the race. Remember in 2024 Trump has been repeatedly *underperforming* public polling. 

I also think we’ve seen this dynamic in the recent Marist polling that breaks out likely voters from registered voters, something few polls are doing right now. In this week’s Marist poll Biden leads 50-48 (+2) with registered voters, but 52-47 (+5) with “definite” or likely voters. 

So why is the race so tight Is it Crime?

A new USA Today story on crime rates in America interviewed crime data expert Jeff Asher: 

As early data showed murders declining nationwide last year, Asher was careful about overstating things. But as the big decline continued, he wrote in December that he had “seen enough” and was ready to declare that the U.S. was experiencing a major drop in killings.

“Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023, likely at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded,” Asher wrote online.

The decrease in murders is "potentially historically large," Asher told USA TODAY, and it's not just killings that are declining. Preliminary 2023 FBI data “paint the picture" of a big decrease in overall crime, he wrote.

Biden governs and leads, on hard things, big things, on the things that matter to all of us.

Is the race tight because of the Economy?

Our economy is the best in the world.  Just look at this graph

The US Grows As % Of Global GDP - The remarkable American economy continues to be as the FT called it the other day, “the envy of the world.” Note that as our share of global GDP has grown in recent years, China’s has declined. 









Is the race tight because of the border? 

Rs are doing all they can to make political hay out of this global phenomenon that will only get worse and worse as climate change continues to wreck havoc around the world and the United States continues to be a refuge from that chaos.

Is the race tight because of Gaza?

Biden and Democrats have closed the gap  during the last few months, but College unrest could make taking a clear lead this summer more problematic.

Last night at dinner, I talked about how bad things sometimes arise from good things and good things can arise from bad things.

Let's hope and work this election to be the latter.

And that Decency prevails over Lunacy

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