Predicting is very difficult, especially when you are talking about the future. Yogi Berra
I just got a piece in the mail from the World Future Society. It is their special report for the Winter of 2005.
By the year 2025, China will emit more carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide than the United States, Japan, and Canada combined--70% of the energy used in China comes from coal burning power plants, few of which are equiped with pollution controls.
Hydrogen power will be cost competitive by 2018. New hydrogen generators that run on solar power will drive price breakthrough. The result will be affordable and nonpolluting cars that are ultimately powered by water.
The US faces a tidal wave of e-waste. Some 3/4 of all the computers, televisions and PDAs ever sold in the US are no longer in use and await disposal.
Even without dramatic advances in life extension, Baby Boomers are likely to live much longer, and in better health, than anyone now expects.
Now, I spoke not too long ago to members of this group and I found them to be a very savvy and sophisticated group. However, three of these predictions are not predictions, they are more like projections. If we continue to head on this heading at this speed we will be in Dakota by morning.
Predicting is much more difficult.
One reason predicting is so hard is because reality can't make up its mind.
Often, the competing forces are precariously balanced.
And even though everything is in everything,
And the oneness reveals itself always,
It only reveals itself once it knows for sure what it is there is to reveal.
Things can break one way or the other based on inches.
It really is like a football game or any other sporting event.
One little tiny thing, a bad call, a good break, a stupid fumble,
can completely change the momentum and alter the game,
and suddenly, one of the two relatively balanced teams
has the upper hand and it is beating the tar out of the other.
It's actually kind of scary.
So, we can be real smart and make projections about the future,
and we can be real lucky and make predictions about the future.
So, lets look at food projections.
Feeding everyone in 20 years is going to take cooperation.
So, lets look at energy projections.
Here is the conventional view.
Here is the contrarian view.
Providing energy for everyone in 20 years is going to take cooperation.
So, let's take a look at water supplies.
Providing water for everyone in 20 years is going to take cooperation.
If you want to follow trends, I know of no better source than Worldwatch.
Lester Brown and Chris Flavin are doing their best
at watching the World for us.
If you want to predict the future,
I know of no better way than getting in the game.
It really is a game of inches.