Wednesday, August 22, 2007

The End of the Holocene

A reader from the left coast just sent me a letter that he had mailed out to his friends. Dave is a little concerned about the lack of reporting on the record ice melt in the arctic. I linked to the story in the "much ado" post, but I agree, this story is an important one.

Here is part of his letter.

On Friday August 17, 2007, NSIDC (The National Snow & Ice Data Center) announced that the Arctic Summer Sea Ice had reached an all time low and had passed the prior record observed at the end of the melting season in September of 2005. There are some obvious and not so obvious comments applicable to this astonishing state of affairs. Please note that at the time of release there was still another 25% left of the ‘melting season’!

The initial announcement was picked up by ‘The Indianapolis Star ": of course one might have expected in any sane society that this would have been leading the news in all media outlets but then again it did drift to by Tuesday: quite frankly the events in Iraq pale by comparison.

The lead scientist commenting on this situation was none other than Mark Serreze and the media printed his somewhat comforting comments, ergo that he doesn’t anticipate ‘clear water’ until 2030. The state of the US press can be defined as deplorable, controlled, or utterly inadequate for the publics needs on this basis alone: pick one!

Serreze modeled the Arctic many years ago and concluded that there would not be clear water until 2100+ and irrespective of the overwhelming evidence he has been steadfast on this issue; after all if the facts don’t fit his hopelessly inadequate model the facts must be wrong!

An extract from his telephone interview is, “The puzzling thing”, he said, “is that the melting is actually occurring faster than computer climate models have predicted”.
Several years ago he would have predicted a complete melt of Arctic sea ice in summer would occur by the year 2070 to 2100, Serreze said. “But at the rates now occurring, a complete melt could happen by 2030”, he said Friday. Maybe he hopes to retire before his long line of hopeless reasoning is finally exposed.

The stark reality is the models, all of them, and there are 18 concerned with the Arctic Summer Sea Ice alone, have on average been in error by over 3 standard deviations from the mean for well over a decade. In mathematical terms, and after all these are mathematical models, this means that they are totally invalid and in truth merely serve to further confuse the issue.

Where do we see thoughtful analysis from some scientific correspondent?


Virtually no one has interviewed an Oceanographer yet relative to this situation, but in fairness, the CBS Evening News last week had an Oceanographer interviewed in the Arctic, on the remaining ice, and he stated the position of all the peer reviewed scientists who have commented on this, ergo, ‘when the summer sea ice disappears, civilization as we know it ends.’

James Hansen explains this with even more clarity by stating that this will result in the end of the Holocene Period. "

Dave goes on with his letter closing with this:

"There is a very small window of opportunity to attack this problem and those who are actively blocking this are actually committing crimes against humanity on an unthinkable scale.

Ignorance is simply no excuse, because in an absence of open debate, this attitude is intentional, and it is high time to both admit it and demand action.

I agree with Dave.

But as Cheek and Chong said.

"Dave's not here. "

But the End of the Holocene is.


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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Aug 22,2007

Oz, do you ever wonder how people's minds work around climate change? For too many of us it is not even on our radar scope. Other's of us are uneasily aware of climate change but have more pressing things to deal with in our daily life. For the
environmentally concerned it competes with saving our springs and clear cutting
the last old growth forest to trying to save the integrity of the world's oceans and
other water resources.

Perhaps a more interesting question would be how do people react who appreciate
that even the most dire predictions we see in the media are grossly understated
and that what we are most likely witnessing is the slow motion extinction of civilization and maybe even human kind. I am in this category. My first and foremost reaction is to be grateful that I am not consumed by this cause as I have been with lesser causes throughout my life.

Although this is occurring in my world, a world that I helped fashion, yet my emotional response is that of a spectator. I do not mean to imply that I am not taking action, it is just that my emotional response machine is in the off position. It is reminiscent of a couple of high speed driving incidents when I thought I was a goner. Some part of my mind kicked in and said "as much as you would like to enjoy the drama of your impending doom that is contra indicated for survival . So as much as I might liked to
take to the streets shouting at the top of my lungs "are all of you crazy, don't
you know what you are doing" I don't do that because indeed most of us are crazy
and don't know what we are doing, therefore it is a waste of time and contra indicated.

I think the root cause is in the collective unconscious to which I have so generously
contributed. The ultimate remedy may have an esoteric side to it, but on the pragmatic front my efforts on more directed to maintaining our constitutional form of government
so that we can oust the rascals that are bent on wreaking mayhem with the climate so
that they can continue to maintain world control through profits reaped from the fossil fuel business. This I am doing rather than something more direct like serving in the neighborhood recycling committee.

So, even after all this, you are probably still shaking your head and wondering how people can be so apparently oblivious to such an obvious approaching catastrophe.
It's our nature. Have a nice day.


3:46 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What can I do?

‘Ask not what your country can do for you’, the inspiring words a 13 year old heard spoken on the television in Europe in 1961. I didn’t know or care about the political divisions of that US era but I saw hope in a new leader and we all embraced the man and his family when he came to visit our continent.

Where is any comparable leader in US politics today; I do not see one on either side of the aisle and yet if ever there was a time for a leader it is right here and right now?

Anticipating that any US politician is going to avail the public of the true facts regarding the status of global warming is a total waste of thought; people simply don’t like the truth even though they say they do - they actually like their truth as supplied by their favorite talking head.

So when other eminent scientists join an eminent scientist to state that civilization will end if we do not act, a perfectly sensible person will correctly assume little or no effective response from anyone, least of all politicians.

In moments when the denial cannot be sustained and potential reality takes over, the end of civilization then simply promotes a feeling of having a cocktail on the deck of the Titanic; full speed ahead and to hell with the consequence!

The end of civilization should be modified with, ‘as we know it’ and quite frankly would that be such a bad thing? I find little that is civil anymore and even less as time moves on. A good restructuring may change the human race and though there will be pain, great pain, as with all truly wrenching struggles for a better tomorrow it should not be in vain.

So do not ask ‘what can I do’, do something instead of contemplating, vacillating and procrastinating. The first thing is to acquire knowledge the old fashioned way; in depth instead of sound bites, so that you can better understand those who choose to intentionally mislead. The latest counter argument is that it has been hotter and colder before: missing is the level of the population and what actually happened!

In the mini ice age millions died of starvation due to crop failure and in Germany the people of one state invaded another and burnt 1,000 people at the stake in one year on the basis that their form of religion was causing the bad weather; how little we have changed!

Take a look at the chart and see what happened when the climate stabilized around 1850:

(chart won't paste in)

Since we have no leader, be one: stand up at the plate instead of pretending that’s what everyone else should do when they have the chance, and at least get a base hit. A leader will arrive because they always do; history reveals that this is a human characteristic that repeats in times of dire need. That leader will require a team and the more infrastructure that is in place, the faster they will be able to accomplish much needed results.

Wouldn’t it be nice to have: a full inquiry into 9/11 and see the 84 videos seized by Donald Rumsfeld of the Pentagon attack; a full inquiry into the origins of the Iraq war and the attendees of Cheney’s famous energy meeting; a full inquiry into at least 3 elections, and then if there are guilty parties, to either incarcerate or execute them?

Well unfortunately, or fortunately, there are laws that deal with the rights of the criminally insane and on that basis alone it will never happen. The bottom-line is quite simple; we don’t have the time and need to move on and past these people rapidly.

Any positive action each person takes today in readiness for the world that can be created out of the mess that has been made by so-called civilization will save countless lives in the coming years. Let us not forget the continual slaughter of heathens by ‘civilized people’ on behalf of their God and the underlying quest to exploit the resources sequestered in each of these actions with his blessing.

Personally if I were God right now I would be more than a little upset when I look down and see my creations being destroyed at the rate of one every 15 minutes along with my great garden being systematically turned into Mordor.

And then there are 2 of my greatest creations; the polar bears and the penguins; both under heavy siege. Who would, should, expect sympathy?

Get on with it, and when people call you a zealot, a crusader, or the charge you with spreading doom and gloom, go and get some advice from those who have dealt with the terminally ill: you do the right thing and bear the pain because that’s how you show your humanity.

Ignorance is difficult to overcome but not impossible and pain builds character!

Exxon/Mobile is not doing a good job - we are doing a very bad one!


6:49 AM  

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