Tuesday, January 08, 2008

The Train that Arrives

It's a beautiful day in New Hampshire so the turnout is going to be high. (Watch live blogger coverage)

Here is the most recent poll from Pollster.com. Kos put his best guess out for the night saying "The big challenge here is trying to figure out where the independent vote will go. If they decide to cast a Democratic ballot, Obama wins huge. If they decide to cast a Republican one, Obama wins less big.

My(Kos's) predictions:

Obama 45
Clinton 26
Edwards 21"

I would love to think that Edwards could pull up above Clinton, but I'm dreaming I know. But Paul Loeb does a good job of explaining why I keep hoping:

"But there are also real arguments to continue supporting John Edwards. Of the three major Democratic candidates, he's taken the most forceful specific stands on poverty, health care and America's economic divides. He's spoken out the most forcefully on the war--and used scarce campaign dollars to run ads trying to pressure congress when Iraq appropriations were up for a vote. He was the first to come up with a comprehensive global warming plan.

He's been the most consistent in articulating how the domination of our politics by those Teddy Roosevelt called "the malefactors of great wealth" affects every other issue that we face. Despite being vastly outspent and dismissed by the major media, he's brought these issues into the common discussion in a powerful way.

I loved Obama's post-caucus sermon of hope, but Edwards gave a talk that was even stronger, as he asked what it means for a country as rich as America to leave so many people without health care, decent jobs, and a future.

It's no coincidence that the parents of the young woman who died when CIGNA refused to cover her liver transplant are now joining Edwards on the campaign trail.If all those wary of Clinton coalesce around Obama, he really would become the odds-on favorite to defeat her as the Democratic standard-bearer.

That would be a fine result because both Obama and Edwards poll considerably better against the leading Republicans than does Clinton, although Edwards is the only one who beats all the Republican candidates."

Edwards is also the only anti-nuclear candidate .

And Edwards is the only candidate who is actually surging according to Glenn Greenwald:

"As but one example, consider this new daily tracking poll today from Rasumussen Reports. At least according to this poll, it is true that there has been one candidate who has been genuinely surging in the last week or two among Democratic voters nationally -- John Edwards:

Edwards -- who, just one week ago, was 10 points behind Obama nationally among Democrats -- is now only two points behind him. Less than a month ago, he trailed Clinton by 29 points. Now it's 13 points. He is, by far, at his high point of support nationwide.

Apparently, the more exposure Democratic voters get to Edwards and his campaign positions -- and that exposure has been at its high point during his surge -- the more they like him."

But heck, Obama looks good, sounds good, and he is hotter than Presidio in an August afternoon. And I think there are plenty of good reasons to believe that Edwards would join him on the ticket. If he and Kerry had won in 04, he would likely be running as Veep again anyway.

I prefer it the other way of course, but hey, when you're in the wilderness, you need to ride the train that arrives at the station. (and this one looks pretty dang good)

As far as the Republican side is concerned, it reminds me of the sign I saw last night coming off of the freeway which said "honk if you don't care about the OSU/LSU football game".

So I did.


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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jan. 8th 2008

I agree with your evaluation of John Edwards and I am in total accord with the positions of his that you set out in the blog, yet I also agree with you on taking the train that has arrived, and its a pretty good train.

Obama has what I want. Hope. He is at the center of a movement of hope. Yesterday Obama told an overflow crowd of people that were waiting outside in the snow to see him that he was riding a wave, and you, the people, are the wave. It is a wave of hope and it is more powerful than a tsunami.

Hope unlocks the human heart and the human potential and there is no problem so dire that it cannot be turned around by hope. Hope inspires action and action inspires more hope. It's a divine cycle. There is not a problem in the world that to some extent hasn't been caused by we the people of the planet and that includes the weather, famine, disease and war. If we humans merely quit harming ourselves the remaining problems would be within our means to handle.

A few weeks ago I took paper and pad to see if I could reduce to writing what's bugging me. I didn't finish, but I took a break when I got to 31. The attack on our liberty by our own government , climate change, war with Iran, war with Iraq, the nuclear option , peak oil, torture, the declining economy, the declining dollar, our country's loss of esteem. These were just the openers. Despair as far as the eye could see. Then something lifted my mood.
It was that Wave of Hope that Obama and his enthusiast have generated. All that I needed to lift my spirits was a believable, belief that there was a chance. A chance that things can be better.

If the future of our resources and our planet and our climate turn out to be a disaster I can see being happy in being with upbeat people who are being kind to one another, who are helping one another and that's what I see in this message of hope. I can see people being really happy who are making a better life out of a catastrophe. There is more room for happiness there than living a life of luxury on the Titanic.

And no one should tell me that I can't have this hope. I want it .I really want it and nothing can stop me from doing my part to be part of it. And that's the beauty of it I am not dependent on anyone else now that I have been awakened to the reality that the hope I have seen is within my self and is dependent on no one else.


6:12 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I heard from an old friend living in Mexico that there are no more trains running from Laredo to Mexico City. That was a train I took on a few occasions and I am sad to hear that it is no longer in operation.
Anyone know what went wrong?

7:17 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Edwards was my second choice, after Senator Clinton. I breathe easier tonight.
Frances Morey

7:18 PM  
Blogger Charlie Loving said...

Edwards would the superior choice. The pundits blew it didn't they?

Clinton might really be a comeback kid. It took her five days to revitalize her doings. There a figure that struck me. Women voted for her, even the younger ones.It could really be that Hillary is inevitable after all. Which would mean no change and more of the same in Washington. I have no idea what stopped the tidal wave for Obama but it could have well been the tears in Hillary;s eyes that freaked out everyone. crying women freak out a lot of people, even me.
And the corporate guys are gleeful and dance in their ivory towers.

6:00 AM  
Blogger oZ said...

Frances, on the Mexican train issue, the Mexicans have adopted the American model, which is trains are for freight, people ride in the air, in their cars, or on the bus. Thus the Mexican bus system is pretty good and getting better.

As far as the Obama train, I think last night actually works out well for all. The democratic race will now go down to super Tuesday next month.

And remember, Clinton was well ahead in New Hampshire just a week ago, everyone seems to have forgotten that.

6:49 AM  

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