Sunday, February 20, 2005

The Pentagon Plan

For those of you who don't know or might wonder, I am a senior long term planner for a major billion dollar organization.

Just a year ago, many of us who scour the news and research sites for developments in Climate Change, Peak Oil, and advanced technological developments were impressed by an apparently leaked plan out of the Pentagon. I got a copy of the report and I was impressed mostly with the realization that the U S government did have a climate change plan in place.

And it is not mitigation.

Mitigation means you sign climate treaties and you cooperate with the other nations to try to keep the suffering and destruction to a minimum.

It is not adaptation,

at least not in the standard use of the term.

Adaptation would mean air conditioning programs, and efficiency programs, and strategies to deal with reduced water tables, and reduced water in rivers and lakes, and studies to suggest where to move food and grain producers.

No, the U S response is different.

It is a military response.

Commissioned by highly respected Defense Department planner Andrew Marshall, the Pentagon study raised the possibility that global warming could prove a greater risk to the world than terrorism. Marshall is known in Pentagon circles as Yoda, because he is so highly regarded.

He is listened to.

The study's principal authors were Peter Schwartz, former head of planning for Shell Oil, and Doug Randall of the Global Business Network, a California think tank.

When the Guardian broke the story, they were, well, less guarded:

Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters..

A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.

An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change is 'plausible and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately', they conclude. As early as next year widespread flooding by a rise in sea levels will create major upheaval for millions.

A major story followed in Fortune where they got right to the point:

The threat that has riveted their attention is this: Global warming, rather than causing gradual, centuries-spanning change, may be pushing the climate to a tipping point. Growing evidence suggests the ocean-atmosphere system that controls the world's climate can lurch from one state to another in less than a decade—like a canoe that's gradually tilted until suddenly it flips over. Scientists don't know how close the system is to a critical threshold.

But abrupt climate change may well occur in the not-too-distant future. If it does, the need to rapidly adapt may overwhelm many societies—thereby upsetting the geopolitical balance of power.

And there was a good story in Grist.

So, are you getting the point yet?

This adminstration definitely believes in Global Warming.

And they believe in Peak Oil.

And their response, according to this report.

Is more military might.

In fairness, the Pentagon planners are just doing their job.

We either look out for ourselves.

Or we look out for the Earthfamily.

Do you have a Plan?

The Pentagon does.

.

12 Comments:

Blogger Pancake said...

No one listens to you on this.

7:03 PM  
Blogger OZ said...

reminds me of the yogi berra line, nobody goes there anymore, its too busy.

welcome to the bloggosphere pancake.

7:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

good stuff, Oz, keep it coming!

1:07 PM  
Anonymous H. David Tattershall said...

The situation regarding the North Atlantic is critical and being ignored by the mainstream media in this country. First it was an increase in icebergs 600-1200 per annum, then it was 4,800 cubic miles of the Artic melting, now it is understood that salination is the key issue. The Gulf Stream, critical for protecting Europe in winter is fracturing off the Spanish coast and the Europeans have calculated the 4,300 more cubic miles of the Artic will do the job. The reason is that heavier salinated water flows under the lighter stuff from the gulf and as a result drags the Gulf Stream north. The calculations show this will happen within the next two decades with only moderate increases in CO2, but the oil industry is predicting world demand for oil to increase 40 million barrels per day in the next 15 years (currently 82-83 million barrels).

So, the US thinks they have a problem with social security? Long before that problem the northern hemisphere is moving towards a mini ice age and the loss of millions of square miles of coastal property. Add to that the potential ravaging of industrialized economies and you just have wonder why the entire EEC, involved with Kyoto, has not delivered an ultimatum to this country. It is coming but there will be a slight delay until the recent findings on salination are consolidated.

10:04 AM  
Blogger OZ said...

thanks for your comments H.D.T., what study did the calculation of 4300 more cubic miles come from?

10:16 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There was a complete update on the situation in The New York Times, Friday February 18, 2005. I am currently writing my own piece on the interelationship between this and the current illegal administration of this country.

Note: I am a Brit. I saw a documentry in the UK 6 years ago about the dramatic increase of icebergs in the North Atlantic and what it portends. The core drilling in Greenland was discussed in the documentry, and why. And, quite frankly, this nation has been put to sleep.

12:23 PM  
Anonymous H. David Tattershall said...

The anonymous comment is HDT and the NYT article includes the 4,300 cubic mile data and a two decade maximum cap on the event.

12:25 PM  
Blogger OZ said...

thanks. very good input.

1:45 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Have you seen Soylent Green? - Venado

3:50 PM  
Blogger OZ said...

yes, but a long time ago. I'll check it out again. thanks Venado.

1:15 PM  
Blogger OZ said...

Hey Venado, I rented Soylent Green and was amazed that global warming was the reason everything went to hell. I missed that the first time I saw it which was many many years ago.

It was hard to watch Heston, but I managed to forget his politics for the sake of the film.

2:40 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

just came across your site, having never seen it before. Has anyone looked into the HAARP program being run by the US Gov. in Alaska? Very interesting. Have been informed that their goal is to hold captive the Gulf Stream therefore controlling the world weather. Impossible ??? Don't be so sure. Remember what they did to Nicola Tesla.

3:10 AM  

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