Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Et Tu Gonu

The class five ( now a three) cyclone in the Arabian Sea with the odd name Gonu is moving into the Gulf of Oman towards Oman and Iran in the next few hours.

There is very little news about whether it might damage the oil infrastructure in the region or present problems for the two American carrier groups in the area.
Here is part of Dr. Jeff Master's blog on the subject.

An unusual event is happening over the next 48 hours, as the first tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds, and major hurricane-force winds at that, is approaching the Gulf of Oman, to strike the eastern coast of Oman, curve northward, and make landfall on the coast of Iran.
In the tropical cyclone best tracks and the modern era of weather satellites, there is no record of such an occurrence.Today, Steve Gregory and I will be guest-hosting the blog, while Jeff is on vacation, to provide current information on Severe Cyclone Gonu. (clip)
Updates during the day will be posted on my blog, The View From the Surface.

"Those who live along the Gulf of Mexico are well aware of what it means for a major hurricane to make landfall. Even if they've never experienced it themselves, they have relatives or members of their community who have experienced it. And in many places they can see the damage that remains.

Imagine that you live directly on the Gulf, but in a place where it hardly ever rains, and where a hurricane has never hit, for at least a generation -- for more than sixty years. Your community and many like yours are situated not only directly on the water, but near or in large dry riverbeds on the coastal plain, which is a narrow strip of sandy shoreline that is the dropoff for the three-thousand-foot mountain range behind it.
Even many of the roads up into the mountains are in these dry riverbeds, which course through deep canyons as they rise into the heights.

You don't have any idea what it might mean to experience winds of over 100 miles per hour, whipping up sand, and torrential rain against these mountains that can turn the riverbeds into conduits for dangerous flash floods. And you don't have any idea what storm surge is, and can't conceive of wind-driven high waves that could break against the shoreline and leave nothing behind. (clip)

There is a large oil facility and large airport located right at the eastern 'tip' of Oman - and I counted at least 6 major 'ports' on Satellite imagery along the Oman coast up to 100 miles WNW of Muscat.

On the opposite side of the Gulf is the Iranian coast - with numerous 'cove inlets' each with loading docks and port facilities. At least 9 facilities I could count from the Iran/Pakistan border west to the area I show landfall (Magenta Arrow on the diagram below). Offshore platforms were also seen in a few locations." more

Perhaps the most interesting part of this story is the lack of the story.

Where are the cable guys sporting their wind wear?

This is the first hurricane that has ever hit the Gulf of Oman.

Two carrier groups are in the area.

Oil supplies will be slowed down while the storm passes.

Yet, the oil markets are calm.

Everything is fine.

And the war is winnable.

And it's not about the oil.

And climate change has nothing to do with it.




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