Monday, August 13, 2007

Remembering the Future

In my so called fiction story that I wrote several weeks ago, I depicted a scenario of a horrible devastating loss for the Americans in the Green Zone. I suspect that most of you considered it to be something between impossible and absurd.

Here is a story out this weekend that might make you think otherwise.

New Iraq report to warn of attack
By: Mike Allen
Aug 11, 2007

The Bush administration is finishing a National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq that paints a sobering picture of a mature civil war unlikely to be snuffed out through political progress, according to officials involved in the report’s preparation.

A late draft of the document warns of the possibility of a spectacular attack in conjunction with a crucial mid-September assessment by Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador in Iraq. With the Petraeus-Crocker report looming, some administration officials say they fear a coordinated onslaught like the Tet offensive, a surprise country-wide series of attacks that produced a psychological victory for Vietnamese Communists in 1968.

“We’re concerned about the desire of Al Qaeda to undertake some Tet offensive-style attack in conjunction with the Petraeus report to influence political opinion to the extent that people would lose their stomach for the fight,” one of the officials said. more

And here is a really interesting interview in Information Clearing House that can tell you more about the situation in Iraq in a matter of minutes that you have learned in countless hours of blather from our talking heads and government spokesmen.

Interview with pro-resistance Iraqi Nationalist
Interview conducted by Willi Langthaler
08/10/07 "ICH" -- -

Abduljabbar al Kubaysi, influential political leader of the Iraqi resistance and secretary-general of the Iraqi Patriotic Alliance (IPA) elaborates on the new situation evolving in Iraq

Q: In the last period the European media when touching Iraq have been speaking only on a sectarian civil war. What is really happening?

Actually the US occupiers as well as the government imposed by them are pushing for this sectarian civil war. Also the Iranians have interest in this as they are looking for a federation in the South as well. Their attempt is to make the Sunni, the Christians, the Mandeans leave to have a purely Shiite zone. Under the conditions of war this sectarian drive has an immediate effect.

The US uses this as an argument to stay in Iraq as they claim that they would be needed to settle this strife. There is, however, so much evidence that the intelligence services of the US, of the Iraqi as well as of the Iranian government are the real source of the violence.

They plant bombs or pack them into cars which are then being exploded by remote control or by helicopter in both Shiite and Sunni areas deliberately killing civilians not involved in politics. Thus, they try to spark the sectarian conflict.

In the beginning, the media used to check on the site of the blast and often eye witnesses contradicted the official version that a person exploded himself. Now they use to cordon off the area and impede questions to the locals.

They want to have the news spread that militants did the massacre while it was governing forces or the US who planted explosive loads. In most of the cases there is no person involved killing himself. In these cases you can be sure that the ruling coalition is involved. (clip )

Q: What is the situation of the resistance both in a political and a military sense?

The resistance is still gaining strength. Only judging by numbers they rose from some thousand now exceeding by far 100.000 fighters. Their combat capabilities increased as well. But they could also develop intelligence structures penetrating the Iraqi army and police but also sometimes the environment of the US army.

So all together the system of resistance includes some 400.000 people. The US army and their allies are really demoralised. While the resistance fights to liberate its country they only fight for money. Thus they are becoming more and more savage. They increase numbers not only of direct US troops, but also of mercenary forces which are even more barbarian.

Taken all together they consist maybe of some one million troops. Look to the US losses released by the Pentagon itself which are obviously sugar-coated. If you disregard the months of special military operation like against Falluja or Tal Afar you can see a clear tendency.

At the beginning you had some 50 US soldiers killed by month, then later it was up to 80 and now some 100 get killed each month.

The resistance is now a real popular movement; it is a culture among the people. Everybody contributes its share. And the fact that no government helps us has also its good side. If they would pay than you have always corruption. The typical Arab façade would have been erected.

Now, instead, there is no excuse. Every section is responsible for itself, to organise its people, to train it, to plan the attacks, to raise money, etc. (clip)

Q: There are reports of armed clashes between resistance groups and forces related to al Qaeda. What is the relation of the resistance to the Salafi and Takfiri groups?

Let us remember that the West started with insulting the resistance calling it foreigners and followers of the old regime. They wanted to allude that the resistance has no connection to the Iraqi people.

Actually the resistance sprang up on a very grass root level to defend its identity against the enormous provocations of US neo-colonialism. They were former soldiers, tribesmen, nationally and religiously inspired people who acted in their immediate environment. It was neither foreigners nor Baathists who were the driving force of the inception although Baathists were participating as well.

The way the US deposed Saddam was perceived as an aggression to all Iraqis including those who opposed him.

To be honest, eventually Saddam personally played an important role to push his people into resistance. He did not try to save himself by hiding as was being reported. No, he went from city to city, from Tikrit to Samarra, Anbar and also Baghdad. He contacted Sheikhs, officers and so on.

He said that they should resist not for him as a president, but for the nation and for Islam. He asked them even to not use any more his picture as a rallying symbol. Only in the following months Baath could reorganise as a party and join as such the resistance. From the point of view of the resistance it was a great luck that they could not arrest him for a long time." more

Whether or not the resistance in Iraq has the strength, the moxie, and the advanced strategy they need to drive the colonial forces out of their country, I don't know.

But every time the green zone is attacked with mortar fire, it's not just a random event with no purpose, it's somebody getting their aim and range, perhaps preparing for a coordinated attack from many points.

This war could very easily go from the human disaster it already is,

to a military blunder of epic proportions,

the kind of blunder that makes the history books.

"Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it."
George Santayana

"The main thing history can teach us is that human actions have consequences and that certain choices, once made, cannot be undone. They foreclose the possibility of making other choices and thus they determine future events." Gerda Lerner

We are made wise not by the recollection of our past, but by the responsibility for our future" George Bernard Shaw




Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another work of fiction that came recommended today is Absurdistan by Gary Shteyngart. From the title I would think it's about the war in Afganistan. Just a guess.

12:20 PM  

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