Why Electric Transportation Matters

 

 

 

 

 

Over the last many months, I have been working with the Texas Electric Transportation Resources Alliance on the Texas Electric Transportation Roadmap. It will be published early next year as both a book and a web site.  It's going to be called Getting There.

 

Here is the first part of the first chapter:

 

With all the hubbub about electric cars these days, it’s not surprising that some of us wonder why.  Why do we need to replace our existing infrastructure of cars, trucks, filling stations, and oil change centers? We have seen our transportation system improve and modernize over the last 100 years to become a very reliable way to get from home to office, or from home town to your favorite ocean side beach.

 

It's reliable, you can buy hats while you fill up with gas and you can load up with sugar and starch while you do it.  Many of us have experiences where the car heats up, or the AC breaks, or the fuel pump goes out, and in the vast amount of experiences, things work out.  We find a mechanic after asking around, we call triple A, or in the worst case, we call a wrecker and simply rent a car at a fairly reasonable price.

 

The system works.

 

But the transportation system doesn’t work with the rest of our infrastructure.  You can’t power your house with your car with this system.  And you can’t power your car with your house.  When you park 40,000 of our cars into several square miles of asphalt, they can’t power the lights at the football stadium. We can’t use our cars to power the grid when a snow storm freezes the gas fields which shuts down the power plants. 

 

So we have two very large systems in our advanced world and they don’t communicate or share with each other. Electric transportation solves that problem

 

Even though electric cars seem new to most of us, they have been around longer than our gas powered cars. Here is what the Department of Energy has to say about the early days of ET.

 

“It’s hard to pinpoint the invention of the electric car to one inventor or country. Instead it was a series of breakthroughs -- from the battery to the electric motor -- in the 1800s that led to the first electric vehicle on the road.

 

In the early part of the century, innovators in Hungary, the Netherlands and the United States -- including a blacksmith from Vermont -- began toying with the concept of a battery-powered vehicle and created some of the first small-scale electric cars. And while Robert Anderson, a British inventor, developed the first crude electric carriage around this same time, it wasn’t until the second half of the 19th century that French and English inventors built some of the first practical electric cars.

 

Here in the U.S., the first successful electric car made its debut around 1890 thanks to William Morrison, a chemist who lived in Des Moines, Iowa. His six-passenger vehicle capable of a top speed of 14 miles per hour was little more than an electrified wagon, but it helped spark interest in electric vehicles.

 

Over the next few years, electric vehicles from different automakers began popping up across the U.S. New York City even had a fleet of more than 60 electric taxis. By 1900, electric cars were at their heyday, accounting for around a third of all vehicles on the road. During the next 10 years, they continued to show strong sales.

 

To understand the popularity of electric vehicles circa 1900, it is also important to understand the development of the personal vehicle and the other options available. At the turn of the 20th century, the horse was still the primary mode of transportation.

 

Yet, it was Henry Ford’s mass-produced Model T that dealt a blow to the electric car. Introduced in 1908, the Model T made gasoline-powered cars widely available and affordable. By 1912, the gasoline car cost only $650, while an electric roadster sold for $1,750. That same year, Charles Kettering introduced the electric starter, eliminating the need for the hand crank and giving rise to more gasoline-powered vehicle sales.”

 

In 1905, Henry Ford sold 500 cars.  In 1915, he sold 500 thousand.  Take a look at any photograph of a western city and the change in our cities is profound. In 1905, there were no cars, and in 1915, there were no horses.

 

So electric vehicles have been around a very long time.

 

But besides unifying the global energy system, why else would we supplant our existing transportation system which arguably performs well enough.

 

It’s the carbon.

 

When Drake drilled his breakthrough well in Pennsylvania in 1859, change was on the horizon.  But when Captain Lucas drilled through the overburden in East Texas in 1901 and his Lucas Geyser blew oil 150 feet into the air at a rate of 100,000 barrels per day, change had come.  Rock oil became plentiful and cheap.  No longer would we need to send New Englanders out to spear Whales for oil for our lamps.  We literally had oil to burn.

 

And it was cheap, cheap enough to drive electric vehicle technology into a 100 year slumber.

 

But now by burning all that carbon that was sequestered deep in our geologic inheritance and releasing the carbon dioxide that was formed in the process, our climate is changing.

 

And we simply have to stop doing it or our children will be harmed and our grandchildren will die.

 

Why do we need to transition to electric vehicles?

 

We simply must.

 

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A Death We Can Survive

It occurred to me just recently that the world's inability to actually respond to the climate change emergency should not be considered odd or irrational or perhaps even insane. Rather, it is the natural response of any organism that upon understanding that some day it will die, uses it's creative power to manage that understanding.

Humans especially.

We have learned that in order to keep the thought of our impending demise from destroying our ability to enjoy the life that we have, we as the mafia phrase goes, "Forget About It".  We forget about it by inventing a belief system that we don't really die, but rather, we will translate our consciousness into another realm called heaven or the happy hunting ground or wherever.  Or, we will add our life of experience into a soul field that will reincarnate into another individuated life form at some future time.  Clearly, our rational fear of death brings about arguably irrational belief systems and behaviors.

Few of us are able to make the knowledge of our mortal end an ally in our path through this field of light and time.  Making death an ally is a rare trait and gift.

And so it is true of the knowledge of the death of our civilization, at least as we know it.  Some of us simply ignore it, some of us come up with elaborate schemes to marginalize its reality, some believe that the same God that will take them to heaven will handle it without their active response to deal with it.

Death, whether individual or civilizational is a tough thing to digest.  Yet, most of us go to doctors when we get sick.  Some of us go to our doctors early and do what we should to avoid sickness.  Many of us eat less meat, avoid fatty fast foods, and get enough sleep so our bodies can repair themselves as we rest. We do this to remain healthy.

Some of us do something similar with our world body.  We go to city council meetings, we march every now and then, and some of us go to large global meetings sponsored by the UN or C 40.  This from the Guardian:

"The World's governments will meet in Madrid this December to discuss the climate emergency, it has been confirmed, after a last minute intervention by the Spanish government to save the talks.

The Conference had been set to take place in Santiago, Chile, but the government of President Sebastian Pinera decided on Wednesday to call it off because of the unrest in the capital.  Scores of people have been killed and injured in weeks of rioting over economic inequality and social problems.

After Chile withdrew, there was concern that the annual talks might have to be scaled down, postponed or even abandoned.

However, on Friday afternoon, the UN's top official on climate change, Patricia Espinosa, issued a terse statement that COP 25 would go ahead on the original dates, 2-13 December, but in Madrid.

Scientific warnings have become increasingly insistent that time is running out to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stave off the worst damages of global heating. But international negotiation under the UN have been slow and plagued by upsets and backsliding, such as the US plans to withdraw from the Paris agreement, Brazil's rejection of its commitments by President Jair Bolsonaro, and the rise of political populism in other regions."

The big thing at these talks is to try to come up with the most rational and fair approach that the governmental community can devise to account for the rather large reality that in the world economic system right now, it is legal to emit chemicals and climate changing gases into our common air without paying a tax or a fine or even a tipping fee.  Imagine a city where everyone simply discharges their human waste right on the street.  You don't have to imagine it in some cities today.

Should we limit CO2 emissions by country or by per capita?  China may emit the most with their large population, but in terms of per capita emissions, each Chinese citizen emits 5 tons of carbon while each American is responsible for almost 20 tons.

Political strategies range from a carbon tax to carbon trading to carbon sequestrations and combinations of them all.  Given that the Madrid Conference is sponsored by large, yet progressive energy companies like Iberdrola, it's not hard to imagine that progress will be at least slow.

But the world's scientists are telling us that this is an emergency.

Yet, I believe that most of us don't consider it that way.  It's more like death.

It's inevitable.  And there's not much we can do about it.

Or perhaps will do about it.

For example, if you know that the climate change emergency is real and you don't drive an electric car right now, you are missing an opportunity to show yourself, your family, and your friends that you  really do care about our world body...that you understand that only electric driving can be powered by carbon free electric power plants.

That the horsepowered world we have known for 100 years will and must pass on.

It will be a death we can survive.


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Our Next Horizon

This May, I stepped down from the Electric Utility Commission and from the Joint Sustainability Committee, thus ending my formal 20 year involvement as a city official and a wonk in local energy policy making.

Twenty years ago or so, I got a call from a City Council member of my fair city.  He asked me if I would be interested in serving on a city board or commission.  My public appointments at this time had been statewide appointments, having served under both Republican and Democratic administrations.

Under Governor Richards, I served on the steering committee of the State of Texas Energy Policy Partnership. I chaired the Renewable Energy subcommittee. Based on our recommendations, Governor Richards created the Sustainable Energy Development Council by executive order. Our job at the SEDC was to craft a strategic plan to develop the vast Texas Renewable Energy  resource.  From the Council's work, a vast network of power lines capable of moving energy from our vast west Texas lands to the population centers in the center of the State was recommended.

These transmission lines became the backbone of a renewable energy industry that would grow to be the largest in the United States.

Under Governor Bush, I served on the Texas Energy Coordination Council.  Part of our work was to see that the recommendations of the SEDC were realized. We also coordinated with the major Universities.

So in 1998, I became a city official serving on the Resource Management Commission.  In a year or so, I became the Chairman.  It was here that the politics and power of water rights for a fast growing city on a river became a critical debate.

By 2002, I had joined the electric utility of the City as a result of a grant from DOE and the State Energy Conservation office.  My job was to write a long term comprehensive energy plan for the City of Austin.  It was published as the book "Silver in the Mine".  For  the next dozen or so years, I worked at the Utility trying to make that plan a reality. As Special Assistant to the General Manager for Energy Development, part of my job was to develop a portfolio of 35% renewable energy.

When that was achieved, I left the Utility to serve on a City Council appointed Generation Task Force to forge an even larger commitment than the one the City adopted in the original climate plan. Out of that plan we determined that 55% renewable energy was achievable and affordable.  We also called for 600 MWs of utility solar which would replace the need for a new gas plant.

I  was then appointed to the Electric Utility Commission and elected as it's Chairman.  It was from the EUC that the recommendations of the Generation Task Force were considered and to a large part adopted and built.  Two years later,  another generation planning group, as a working group of the EUC, moved the renewable goal to 65% with 75% to be considered if affordable.

And here in Texas, it is affordable.  Wind prices hover below 2 cents a Kwh.  Utility solar has gone below 3 cents a Kwh.  No coal plant can compete with that.  And no gas plant can compete unless natural gas prices fall to 2 dollars /MCF.

And now the 8th largest Public Utility in the Nation is on course to be 85% to 95% carbon free within the next 7 years.  And that is quite an accomplishment.

Here is my letter to the current Chairman of the EUC:

May 10^th, 2019

Chairman Cary Ferchill,
Electric Utility Commission
City of Austin

Dear Cary,

I write to inform you that as of May 15^th I will step down from the Electric Utility Commission.

For the last 20 years, I have been active in local government serving as Chairs of the RMC, the EUC, and the Austin Generation Resource Task Force. During my time at Austin Energy, I wrote a Long Term Comprehensive Energy Plan for the City of Austin ultimately serving as Special Assistant to the General Manager for Energy Development.  During these decades, Austin Energy has grown from 10 MWs of wind and a few MWs of landfill gas, to a leader in the Utility Industry.

In the last resource generation planning group, we adopted a goal of 65% renewable energy by 2027, the closure of both Decker Steam plants by late 2021 and the closing of our share of the Fayette Coal plant beginning in 2022.

We should all be proud of our accomplishments up to now and to come.

The next big carbon goal for the city, our state, all of us, is to tackle the transportation sector.  This electrical transportation transformation will be good for our health, our pocketbooks, and our children. I am pleased to see the recent action of the Council on this.  Consequently, in founding the Texas Electric Transportation Resources Alliance, I have made a decision to shepherd my own resources to that effort.

Since I also serve as the EUC’s representative to the Joint Sustainability Committee, the Commission will need to designate another representative to that important nexus of city commissioners.

The Commission will be facing many challenges in the next five years and I am confident that this EUC will meet those challenges with integrity and skill.

Respectfully,

Michael J Osborne

As the letter says, the work ahead is now in the transportation sector.

If you don't drive electric now, you should.  And in five years, you will.

Just like Texans developed the farm to market road system to bring our foods to market, and we developed an energy delivery system to bring affordable clean energy to our fast growing cities, we will also need to create an  energy delivery system to electrify our transportation system.

That is our next horizon.

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Driving Electric

There is something to driving electric that is more than the sum of its parts.  Sure, they are faster (generally), they are quieter, you don’t have to breath dangerous chemicals to make them go, and there is some comfort in the fact that if you accidentally fall asleep in your car while parked in the garage, you actually will wake up.

Most electric cars are smarter than their smoking hillbilly cousins and they are definitely cheaper to drive.  Want to pay a dollar for gas...drive electric.  Want to never again spend $129.00 dollars on an oil change, oil filter, and air filter again...drive electric.  Tired of waiting for your car as your mechanic finishes that brake job on your 3 year old car... drive electric.

Plus, you might experience what I experienced several months ago.  I was driving east on Hwy 290, a little faster than the speed limit, when this huge “dually” truck  (four tires on the rear axle) comes roaring around me.  It’s a real fancy black truck with shiny dual vertical chrome exhaust pipes running up on both sides of the cabin. There was probably some stickers that I didn’t read but I suspect that the long-haired driver was a member of a political class that rhymes with bumper.

So this guy passes me, then abruptly slows down in front of me. Then, with the flick of some switch, he zooms off leaving a huge noxious black cloud of smoke in his tracks, with me in those tracks...I mean thick black smoke like a locomotive in a western movie.

I had been “smoked”.

And yes, that is a thing.

Surely, I deserved it in his eyes, I was driving the fastest, smartest car on the road in my judgment, and he needed to communicate his unhappiness with that. It was a first amendment thing.

So watch out for those smokers.

Personally, I’m on my second electric car.  The one I have now is all electric, and the one I had before was a plug-in hybrid. The plug-in hybrid went about 40 miles on electric fuel, and then if I needed to travel, the on-board generator would kick in.  There was zero range anxiety and as a cultural transition vehicle, it is pretty smart.  A plug-in hybrid embodies the 80/20 rule quite nicely.  With 80% of trips under 40 miles, then make those emission free trips.  When you drive to Memphis, do that with gas.

I don’t have that option with my “S”.  If I’m traveling out of town, I need to do a little planning.  Fortunately, the computer makes that easy.  One night I got down to about 25 miles before I pulled into the high-speed charger behind the discount mall at mile 202.  Within a few minutes, I had 120 miles again, and Austin was only 30 miles away. Most of the time I charge overnight and wake up to a car that is almost always full and ready to go.

But electric driving is different.  You don’t think of getting a fill-up.  You think of getting home.  Because, unlike a gas car, you get most of your “go” at home.

Electric Car sales are gearing up so to speak.

According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “cumulative passenger EV sales worldwide are set to hit 4 million this week.  Including electric buses, the 4 million threshold has already been reached. At the end of June, there were more than 3.5 million passenger EVs sold globally and about 421,000 electric buses, bringing the total number of EVs sold to 3.97 million.

Sales were driven in large part by China, which is responsible for around 37 percent of passenger EVs sold around the world since 2011 and around 99 percent of e-buses.”

Bloomberg goes on:
 

"Setting e-buses aside, we expect cumulative passenger EV sales to reach 4 million units before the start of September 2018. There are several new EV models that we expect to come to the market before the end of 2018, which should help increase sales numbers globally.

The next million EVs will take just over 6 months. We expect the five-millionth EV to be sold in March 2019."

There is a professor at Texas A & M who considers himself an electric car expert.  He doesn’t believe that we will ever replace the advanced gasoline cars of today because they are just so good.

He also doesn’t drive an electric car.

He also doesn’t believe that climate change is a transcendent problem.

That in order to get the carbon out of our world, we will need to run our cars on wind and solar.  And with enough electric cars, we will have enough stored energy to do it.

Driving Electric is more than the sum of its parts, because electric transportation is the building block to a carbon-free world.

September is a good a time to start because it’s Drive Electric Week from the 8^th to the 16^th. Here in Texas, there will be events in Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Corpus Christi, San Antonio, and Austin.  The Dallas event is in Grapevine on Sept 8^th, and the Austin event is on the 15^th.

Join us in Austin on Electric Drive Saturday, September 15th, and climb into the driver’s seat of the newest electric vehicles available. There will also be the latest scooters, motorcycles, mopeds, buses, skateboards and bikes. Grab lunch from one of our food trucks and enjoy the live music, workshops and activities for kids!

Sponsored locally by Public Citizen, the Texas Electric Transportation Resources Alliance (TxETRA), Austin Energy, and SmartCharge America, it might be your opportunity to become part of the solution.

Hopefully, it will help keep us all from getting “smoked”.

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Texas Electric Transportation Resources Alliance

Here is the opening of the first Texas Electric Transportation Resources Alliance Newsletter.

Message from TxETRA Board Chair, Michael Osborne

About a year ago, I came to the conclusion that the time for a statewide electric transportation advocacy group was just about here.

Well, after a dinner in late October, a lunch in December, about 10 interim board meetings in Jan, Feb, and March, and a fabulous board meeting and founding reception at the Austin Club on April 6th, TxETRA was born.

Thank you to all of you who have helped make this happen. I'm especially grateful to Mark Kapner, Dale Bula, Joep Meyer, Cary Ferchill, Austin Energy, The Wind Coalition, Public Citizen, Janis Bookout of EarthDay ATX, and the Energy Foundation.  It goes without saying just how much rocket fuel our Executive Director, Tom "Smitty" Smith, has poured into this effort. We have also been blessed with the help of Stacey Abel, our Policy and Communications Director.

This spring alone, we have met or made presentations to ERCOT, LCRA, CPS, AECT, OMCOR, the Chairman of the PUC, Plug-in Texas, the National Alliance for Transportation Electrification, and a host of elected officials who will be critical to our effort in preparing Texas roads and infrastructure for the transportation transformation that is on the near horizon.

We are over 70 transportation professionals, utility execs, car and truck manufacturers, and academic thinkers, along with electric owners and activists who want to work together to shape the future.

Our Mission is to guide and accelerate the adoption of electrical transportation in all its forms in the most cost effective way providing maximum benefit to the Citizens of Texas.

If you haven't yet joined us, I hope you will.

Please enjoy the 4-minute video (below) from our TxETRA Launch on April 6th where we were joined by Phil Jones, Executive Director of the national Alliance for Transportation Electrification, Austin Mayor Steve Adler, and a host of other distinguished leaders who are applauding our efforts.





Our Executive director Tom Smith says it well:

"We are at the frontier of developing new ways of transporting ourselves across Texas and we need your help to make it happen. Electrified transportation is growing rapidly all over the world because it lowers operating costs and reduces emissions, while creating new business and manufacturing opportunities.

It’s already cheaper to own and fuel an electric vehicle - and it will be cheaper to buy an electric vehicle by 2025. The transformation in how we transport ourselves is largely being driven and developed in Asia and Europe, and so the change will occur with or without policy changes in the U.S.  How Texas responds will determine whether we are in the driver’s seat or in the back of the bus.

As battery technology continues to evolve at lightning speed, people are turning to electric vehicles for health, environmental and economic reasons. Moreover, a recent AAA customer survey revealed that 20% of American drivers indicated that their next car would be an electric vehicle. We believe it is our responsibility to put the infrastructure in place to be ready for this future that is racing quickly toward us."

Yesterday I drove my "S" to San Antonio to see a dear friend who had just received a new set of LUNGS at University Hospital.  Going to the other side of SA on a 102 degree day made the 85 mile drive a 105 mile drive with the Air Conditioner going strong.  With my 235 mile range, that made the return trip a little close, so I stopped at the super convenient super charger in San Marcos behind the outlet mall at mile marker 200 on Centerpoint road. I had about 60 miles left.

I plugged in and watched through the window as the charge took hold. As it reached 100 KW,  I walked off to the POLO shop.  In 15 minutes or so, I bought a new Ralph Lauren sport coat and came back to a car with 180 miles of charge.

Going electric is different.  And you don't realize what a healthy luxury it is to NEVER stop at a nasty, stinking, oil soaked gas station again...until you experience it.

You can even get a little shopping done.

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Transportation Transformation

Sometimes, in the spirit of blogging about things that are bigger than the parts, I seem to forget to simply share what I'm doing in my own world and life.  When I blogged everyday 14 years ago, it was not only easy but essential to talk about my projects.  With my reduced blogging schedule over the last 5 years, a lot of that has gone by the wayside.

But last night, as my mind was rolling like a bowling ball down an Olympic bobsled course, I realized that my current project deserves a little attention.

I've been working on it steadily since early last fall and it's coming together.

Last fall at the TREIA conference in Georgetown when Al Gore spoke, I invited several dozen folks to dinner.  At that dinner , we agreed to meet before the end of the year to kick off the new project.

My November letter said:

Dear Colleague:

Several months ago,  (OK it's been almost a year) it occurred to me that the time for a state wide organization to promote electric transportation is just about here.

With announcements coming from existing car manufacturers of their intentions to move their product lines toward electric drive,  and with whole nation states like China, India, and France announcing timetables to end combustion engines within their boundaries and cities, the message is not just on the wall, it's on the jumbo-tron.

In the mid-eighties, a group of us started the Texas Renewable Energy Industries Association.  We knew back then that the time for Renewables was on the horizon. Today we have over 20 GWs of Renewable Energy  in Texas alone!  And it will soon be approaching 30 GWs.

And now it's time to begin to use that energy in our transportation sector.

In late October, I hosted a vision dinner in Georgetown to  introduce TxETRA  at the Al Gore TREIA conference.  About 40 folks attended. And from that meeting, about a dozen folks showed interest in making this happen.  I have also chatted with several dozen industry folks who also want to help make this a reality.  So, I am enclosing a very basic Power Point of the concept, our constituency, and our mission.

I have reserved TxETRA as an org, net, and tech. And if we don't like it, we can change it.

I am proposing that we schedule a preliminary organizational lunch meeting at the Austin Club in early December with a goal to convene the first organization meeting in early February.

You can help by sending me your suggestions for other groups and individuals we will need to make this happen.

Have a good turkey day

Cordially,

MJO

We met in December and created an interim board of directors.  With that board, we built up a good mailing list and began to meet over the last three months.  In the meantime, I got the corporate documents together and put together the TxETRA web site,

Then, in February, we made contact with a guy named Phil Jones.  He was a utility commissioner from the state of Washington and for a while was the president of  NARUC, a national organization for utility commissioners.  Interestingly, he was doing the same thing we were doing, but at the National level.

Also during this time, Tom Smith, the 31 year veteran executive director of Public Citizen asked if he could become the interim executive director.  Smitty and I have worked together for years, so this was not just music to my ears, it was a symphony.

Then we brought in Janis Bookman, the Earthday lady in Austin, who has a lot of contacts and expertise.

Now we are inviting folks to the Founding Meeting and Reception on April 6th at the Austin Club.

We have put together a board consisting of utility execs, transportation professionals, car and truck manufacturers, transmission companies, and academic heavy weights for UT and Texas A and M.  And thanks to Smitty we have folks who can represent the important equity issues that must be considered.

And thanks to a unique mixture of corporate, private, and foundation commitments, we will have the funding to hire a communication director.

We're hoping for a good crowd at the Austin Club.

Mayor Adler is coming and so is County Commissioner Brigid Shea.

And our guest speaker will be Phil Jones.

Sometimes things come together.

And the Texas Electric Transportation Resources Alliance is almost a thing.

And it needs to be.

Henry Ford built 500 cars in 1905.

He built 500,000 in 1915.

Elon Musk is on the same trajectory.

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