We Are Not Afraid

  

 

As we go into the New Year, there is a majority that did not vote for a soon to be convicted felon, and we certainly don't look forward to the parade of Halloween appointments that he is insisting be confirmed with  no debate or for that matter, no hearing. The new Senate will likely be more of a toilet bowl than a fine confirmation filter of assessing the character and competence to do the job well.  Most have a different mission in mind.

And when you consider that much of the government is going to be run by billionaires, it becomes clear that the day of the Plutocrats has come. This from ABC news:

"President-elect Donald Trump has assembled the wealthiest presidential administration in modern history, with at least 13 billionaires set to take on government posts.

They include a wrestling magnate, a private space pioneer, a New York real estate developer, the heir to a small appliance empire, and the wealthiest man on the planet -- with several being donors and close personal friends of the incoming president.

In total, the combined net worth of the wealthiest members of his administration could surpass $460 billion, including Department of Government Efficiency co-head Elon Musk -- whose net worth of more than $400 billion exceeds the GDP of mid-sized countries.

Even discounting Musk, Trump's cabinet is still expected to be the wealthiest in history, with reported billionaires Howard Lutnick nominated as commerce secretary, Linda McMahon nominated as education secretary, and Scott Bessent nominated as treasury secretary. Together, Trump's expected cabinet is worth at least $7 billion.

Trump's ambassador picks also include several billionaires, including financier Warren Stephens, who has been tapped to serve as the ambassador to the United Kingdom, Conair executive Leandro Rizzuto Jr., tapped to serve as the ambassador to the Organization of American States, Charles Kushner, named the ambassador to France, and Tom Barrack, named the ambassador to Turkey."

So let us consider the veneer of democracy in the United States to be sanded off to the core.

The good news is that the bad news is even worse.

Yes, as we move into this new year, the "Day after Tomorrow" might be in the next few years.  This from Live Science:

Forty-four of the world's leading climate scientists have called on Nordic policymakers to address the potentially imminent and "devastating" collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents.

In an open letter published online Monday (Oct. 21), University of Pennsylvania climatologist Michael Mann and other eminent scientists say the risks of weakening ocean circulation in the Atlantic have been greatly underestimated and warrant urgent action.

The currents in question are those forming the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a giant ocean conveyor belt that includes the Gulf Stream and transports vital heat to the Northern Hemisphere. Research shows the AMOC is slowing down and could soon reach a tipping point due to global warming, throwing Earth's climate into chaos.

An AMOC collapse would lead to major cooling and extreme weather in Nordic countries, according to the letter. This would enlarge and deepen a strange "cold blob" that has already developed over the eastern North Atlantic due to the slowdown of heat-carrying currents. Collapsing ocean currents are also likely to precipitate climate impacts across the Northern Hemisphere, threatening agriculture in Northwestern Europe, according to the letter.

Halted ocean currents could also further heighten sea levels along the American Atlantic coast and send marine ecosystems and fisheries into a state of "upheaval."

Scientists have been genuinely concerned about the increase of the drunk high level jet stream winds that have brought inordinate cold and heat to much of the planet over the last several years. 

But even as we face the certainty of our climate changing radically as a result of our carbon burning ways led by a government that will once again deny it, we face another radical change that is more unknown, more human changing, and just as likely to have profound influence on our economy and the way we manage ourselves.  It is AI and ultimately, it is the Singularity.

 

The Singularity

The concept of a technological singularity as it is known today is largely credited to Dr. Vernor Vinge, a mathematician, computer scientist, and science fiction author who is best known for his Hugo award-winning novel, A Fire Upon the Deep, and for his 1993 essay "The Technological Singularity", in which he argues that exponential growth in technology will reach a point beyond which we cannot even speculate about the consequences.

Vinge's essay contains the following frequently-quoted statement:

"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly thereafter, the human era will be ended."

The Singularity is seen not only as the end of human civilization, but as the birth of a new one. In his essay, Vinge asks why the human era should end, and argues that humans will likely be transformed in the process of the Singularity to a higher form of intelligent existence. After the creation of a superhuman intelligence, according to Vinge, people will necessarily be a lower lifeform in comparison to it. 

If the Singularity is real then the following scenario is totally plausible:

In the near future, individuals and corporations will become super beings as the rest of us slowly but surely become "lessers". Thus, the need for cybercoops which can compete on this new playing field is not just a good idea, it will be a necessity.

We will need the very best communicators and the best, most democratic unifying agency we can find just to keep from becoming slaves. The geographic state will not be able to help us. We will need a cyber state. 

You are capable of competing with the big guys.

Because you have joined with others to form a new human organism.

You have joined with People of Conscience and People of Vision.

We are not afraid. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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We are Alpha

 

 

It was twenty years ago that I started publishing Earthfamilyalpha.

It was November of 2004 and a corrupt, war mongering R had been reelected POTUS. We were all crestfallen.  Four more years of Bush was simply unimaginable. And yet it came with "You are doing a heck of a job Brownie" as the residents of New Orleans fled their homes as waters submerged them entirely.  Bush did a flyover.

So I decided I would start a blog and write almost every day until the situation changed. And in 2008, a half black man, raised by white grand-parents became the first man of color ever elected as president.  And he beat his formidable challenger and partner of former President Clinton in the primary as a first term senator.  McCain was washed out to sea by the collapse of Wall Street and the housing and mortgage crisis that came with it.

Bush was elected in 2004 over John Kerry by a margin of 35 electoral votes (286-251) with a 3 million popular vote lead. ( 62 to 59 million) He beat Gore by 5 electoral votes in 2000 yet lost the popular vote by 1/2 million.

And now, 20 years later, we have another corrupt, hate mongering R reelected into the Presidency.  His campaign of misogyny and racism, combined with his xenophobic war mongering prevailed over an electorate that barely knows the name of both their senators. And for the first time in American history, a convicted Felon will also become the oldest president in our history. And even though the Rs consider this a mandate to paint everything red, he didn't even get a majority of our votes. (49.8%)

This from the New Republic:

"CNN’s Harry Enten reports that Trump is now under 50 percent for the popular vote, and his margin is the forty-fourth worst out of 51 presidential elections since 1824. Four Democrats won Senate seats in states that Trump won (Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada), compared to zero in the 2016 and 2020 elections. And while Republicans held on to their House majority, if results hold, their 221–214 margin will be the smallest majority in the 50-state era. "

So, as this R takes his oath this January, he is lame. And his so called mandate is a myth.

But as  Albert Einstein once quipped, "Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one."And the reality of a mandate may also be a very persistent one. And as the first convicted criminal to be returned to office, his criminal nature will also return.  And this makes him different from the Bushes and Reagan.

It may be more like Nixon. Even though he eked out a victory in 1968 by 20 electoral votes, he crushed McGovern in 1972 by 503 votes.

Less than 2 years later he resigned.

But Nixon didn't have Fox news.  And today's R's do not have the character of Barry Goldwater. And our legacy media does not have the moral clarity or the ownership that allows it. Our R friends love to love their Bibles.  And the Bible says that the Love of money is the root of all evil.

Evil's roots are in the garden.

Humankind is on the precipice. 

Climate Change must be addressed now if not by the Nations then through the Cities by organizations such as C 40, and in time, by Cyberstates. Because our governments and our corporations have delayed for so long, strategies will have to include Mitigation and Adaptation.

Solar, Wind, and new innovative energy production must be accelerated to replace fossil fuels.

Stationary and Mobile Energy Storage must become ubiquitous and transportation of all modes must become electric.

Human habitation must evolve to reduce consumption and increase comfort.

Plutocratic Corporations must be replaced by Democratic Cooperations so that consumers become buyers and producers become providers.

Artificial Intelligence must be removed from profit taking and controlled by limiting the enormous amounts of energy that they require so that this tool is used for the good of all of Earth's inhabitants.

Nuclear weapons must be banned and destroyed.

Human population must be managed to sustainable levels.

We must Respect Self, Others, and Place.

In essentials,  we must have Unity.

In non-essentials, we can enjoy our Liberty.

And in all things, we practice Charity

And so, rather than writing every day, or starting a pod cast, or beginning a hunger strike,  or continue to grieve the naivety of our geographic democracy, I'm going to actually start what I started here 20 years ago.

Since its inception, the primary thesis of Earthfamilyalpha has appeared on the home page.

With the advent of advanced global communication, new forms of social contract can be created which transcend the geographic state. These new cybercoops or cyberstates will bring humankind to higher levels of cooperation and understanding.

We as people of conscience can come together using the communications network and devices that didn't even exist when this blog was born. We are no longer bound by geography. We are cyberbeings.  And for now, we are free to choose our future.  We participate in our geographic state, but do not identify with it.

The new Earthfamilyalpha website will be up in a few days.  Our plan is to have a global convention next November.  At this convention, we will write our Declaration of Dependence and our Constitution.

We are Alpha.

 

 

 

 

 

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The Man Wave

 

It was All Saints Day and it was like a light switch.  I have had enough of DJ Drumph.  I don't want to hear his voice or watch his accordion hands, or gaze upon his dragging right leg, or the orange powdered face of a broadway player in a truly disgusting role.  I don't want to hear one more lie, one more mean spirited characterization of  his former Chief of Staff, the Joint Chief of our armies, or his Secretary of Defense.

And I don't want to see him give his microphone a blow job  after stroking it. He is gross and he has brought American political discourse to a realm somewhere below Hades.

Talking Points Memo said it well:

As Clear A Referendum As Ever Could Be

"Donald Trump slogged through the final weekend of his third presidential campaign as the Republican Party nominee demonstrating in blatant ways nearly every facet of the misbegotten character that makes him unfit for public office at any level.

He mimed stroking and fellating a microphone on a rally stage in Milwaukee. He talked favorably of the press corps in attendance taking bullets intended for him at a rally in Pennsylvania. He said he should have never left the White House after his 2020 election defeat, contemplating a coup by intransigence. He bizarrely claimed that the counting of votes should be over by 9 p.m. on election night, thus stoking anew bogus election fraud conspiracies centered on the time it takes to count votes.

It wasn’t that long ago that the most persistent challenge Republicans in public life presented to reporters, watchdogs, and the sanctity of the English language was disguising their unpopular, often cruel, and elaborately expensive policy preferences under layers of double talk, misdirection, and word play. With Trump it is all undisguised. 

Perhaps we can count that as a small blessing.

On the margins of this campaign, Trump and his surrogates have muddied the waters around health care policy, Medicare, tariffs, and taxation. Political reporters still fall for this gamesmanship. But where it counted most – trying to soften the edges of Republicans’ brutal abortion policies – the political press was largely on point and unfooled.

For the most part though, what you see with Trump is what you get. 

It is why his defeat will be so cathartic and represent a genuine repudiation of the man and his movement. 

It is also why a Trump victory would be so devastating. As unfathomable as a Trump win would be after the last decade of Trumpism and especially the past three weeks of his careening, unhinged campaign, it remains a real possibility. History will show that we knew everything we needed to know. Ignorance will be no excuse.

But, I believe that it will be the former.

And so does Michael Moore:

As you know, I have been loathe to predict how I really feel the election is going to turn out on Tuesday. But I’m guessing by now you’ve picked up a basic sense from me that, contrary to the breathless punditry of how “dangerously close” this election is — It’s a tie! It’s a 50-50 country! It’s neck-and-neck! It’s kneecap-to-kneecap! Trump’s gonna win!

I have felt for a long time that not only is Trump going to lose (because, yes, I have a lot of faith in the goodness of my fellow Americans), but Kamala Harris is going to win, and win big. With crowd-size numbers that even Trump will be blown away by, meaning this is the last that we will see him (unless Dr. Phil does a live special from Epstein Island a few years from now). "

Moore goes on to quoting from his favorite pollster, Rachel Bitecofer:

"And what we see in these data is overwhelmingly positive for Harris.

As I have documented in previous posts, the Trump Team’s theory of the 2024 case was that since Dobbs was political kryptonite for Trump, they would build their strategy around men.

It probably took being a woman political scientist to fully recognize the folly that is designing your entire electoral strategy around getting men who don’t normally vote, to vote.

During football season, no less.

Here’s how it’s going: (more)

"Now, to be clear, the gender gap we see in early voting and registration data is not dissimilar from what we saw in both 2020 and 2022. But Democrats didn’t need an even bigger gap, it was already huge and Joe Biden won with that gender gap.

What Democrats needed was to maintain that advantage in the face of 2 years and millions in investment from Trump and Republican superPACs to drive more men to the polls to maximize their own gender gap to offset ours.

And there is not one iota of evidence that suggests they have been successful in this effort.

And don’t forget: the Man Wave strategy was not without costs for the Trump campaign, Trump further isolated a key part of the voting universe: college educated whites.

Sneer at the White voters all you want but you should know there is one group of White Americans who actually like multicultural, pluralistic democracy, and every cycle Democrats have made additional inroads with them: college educated White voters. (clip)

But there are strong signs that Democrats will continue to make inroads among college educated White voters, as they have every cycle since Trump descended down his golden escalator to debut his special brand of hate politics.

But in this cycle, the Harris campaign specifically targeted these voters with messaging designed to break their brand loyalty to the Republican Party.

As far as the Selzer poll this weekend in Iowa shows, it’s working."

Obviously, I'm thoroughly disgusted with my fellow XYs and Drumph will still win men.  And although this will be the first successful XX presidential election in this country,

There will be more.

As we YO YO our way 

through human history

into a climate change cloud of uncertainty.

 

 

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Den 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We just got back from New Orleans.  It's been a while since we've been there.  And it seems that much of the  City is finally coming back from Hurricane Katrina and the one that followed a few weeks after that.  Back in the 90s, I was in NOLA pretty often.  Along with a group of environmental activists, we created a southern states climate change organization and New Orleans, Nashville, and Austin were the cities we met in.  So I got pretty comfortable there, spending much of my time off of St. Charles where the trolleys run. In my many visits, if I did go to the Quarter it would be to go to the Napoleon Bar, where I would work in that little cubby hole in the back of the restaurant.

I was pleased to find that not only do the trolleys still run, they have been restored.

And downtown in the Casino district, the World Trade Building is no longer a boarded up eyesore.  After languishing for almost a dozen years after Katrina, it has been transformed into the new Four Seasons Hotel.  The lobby bar is flashy and the view from the 5th floor restaurant is worth the effort.

So my partner and I flew to NOLA on Saturday and had dinner at Irene's that night in the quarter.  The next day we would join my pals who, believe it or not, have been friends since we were in Den 2 together back in the Texas panhandle almost 70 years ago. Six of us, plus 2 others from our boy scout troop have met at least every decade over the last 35 years. Only Larry has crossed over.

And all of us follow the Cub Scout motto  to "Do Your Best", and to have fun doing it.

Beginning on Sunday, we ate dinner together for 3 nights in a row. All but 2 of us had our partners with us.  All of us are successful hard living party types and this three days was no different.  But we did let off a little bit this time.  The first night, we ate at  the Court of Two Sisters in the Quarter on Royal.  We closed it up.

The next night we ate at Luke just off Poydras. It was only 4 blocks away from our Hotel, but somehow Hal got lost and followed his phone all the way to Lee Circle, almost exactly the wrong direction.  He told me that he didn't get back to the Meridien for two hours.

It was there at Luke that our truly exuberant server came over to me and lathered me with a ridiculous story about needing boots to go back into the freezer for just a moment.  She could have sold me my own car if she set her mind to it.  So I pull off my Blundstones and she leaves her shoes as collateral.` Then she goes over to the other side of our 12 top, shows Rick, Hal's twin brother that she had indeed succeeded in getting my boots off.  Rick, being duly impressed, went to his wallet and dished out 5 20s for her efforts, as his wife Annie looks on with little surprise.  

That's the kind of people we are.

The last night, we ate at a James Beard Award winning restaurant off Magazine Street called Pesce.

During the days, we visited the greatly improved World War II museum, rode the trolleys through the Garden district to Carrolton, and took in the Aquarium with its butterfly room.

Now, let me explain something.  The Texas Panhandle is one of the most Republican districts in the good old US of A.  And except for John, my college roommate who moved to LA after graduation, all of these guys are Trump voting Rs. While John lived in LA he made his living counting cards in Las Vegas for 10 years until they finally threw him out with the help of cheap video cameras and inexpensive storage.  John later bought a bank supply company in Amarillo.

Tommy, who almost fell to his death in Stonewall, Colorado, except for me catching him as his rope broke, instead grew into a successful lawyer in Waxahachee .  His partner, Nancy, is an Episcopalian Priest. Jimmie and Beth live in Colorado where he started his Beef Jerky company.  McCloskey used his Indian blood to become a dentist in California.  The Cree twins ran their grandparents oil business while owning banks,  and many other ventures. We even worked together on his Wind investments.

If anyone mentioned the election, I didn't hear it.  But whoever wins, we will still be friends. And this country will need for friends to find their commonalities in order to heal from one of the ugliest political movements we've seen in a 100 years.

It's hard to erase  the racism and misogyny in our superego.

Eating together instead of each other will help.

Thanks Den 2.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Voyagers on Earth

 

Remember that time on Star Trek when they were facing a new unknown enemy? The ship was a machine ship with no carbon based life forms aboard.  It was called VGER.

As it turned out, VGER was short for Voyager, an evolved artificial intelligence that returned to Earth in Star Trek (the Motion Picture) and ascended to explore higher levels of existence. It is probably the most powerful artificial entity encountered by Starfleet.

Now I'm not a big Trecky fan, but there were a lot of things that I appreciate that came from the mind of Texan Gene Roddenberry. One, the cast is multi cultural and multi species.  The purpose of the missions was to explore the universe. There is no such thing as money.  There is no pursuit of capital just pursuit of knowledge. 

In the real world, our Voyagers are now almost 20 billion miles away and they have entered space where the solar winds no longer exist. It takes about a day to send or receive a message from them.  And we lost contact with VGER 1 just last year.

This from BBC's Sky and Night:

"On 14 November 2023, the spacecraft suddenly began transmitting unintelligible data instead of its usual engineering and science report.

The spacecraft still appeared to be receiving commands and operating normally, allowing the team to diagnose the problem lay in Voyager 1’s software and develop a fix.

On 20 April, the team received the first understandable message back from the spacecraft in five months.

In 2012, Voyager 1 passed through the heliopause, the boundary at the edge of the solar wind’s influence and the start of interstellar space. The twin Voyagers are the only spacecraft to have ventured into this region, making their invaluable data worth fighting for.

After 47 years in space, both Voyager 1 and 2 are beginning to reach the end of their usable lifespan. Both are powered by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, using radioactive material to generate electricity. As this radioactive material decays over time, its power output slowly decreases. 

Even once all its scientific systems are shut down, Voyager will continue transmitting a locator signal back to Earth, which will remain in range of the Deep Space Network until 2036.  At that point, the Voyagers will sail beyond our sight, but will continue to travel ever outward into the depths of the Universe."

But if they do wind up in some other galaxy, they know where to find us, thanks to the copper plates we put on them at the suggestion of Carl Sagan.  We also included a golden record. 

This from Wikipedia:

The Voyager Golden Records are two identical phonograph records which were included aboard the two Voyager spacecraft launched in 1977.^[1] The records contain sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth, and are intended for any intelligent extraterrestrial life form who may find them.

Carl Sagan noted that "The spacecraft will be encountered and the record played only if there are advanced space-faring civilizations in interstellar space, but the launching of this 'bottle' into the cosmic 'ocean' says something very hopeful about life on this planet."

Whether or not VGER returns as advanced AI, who can say.  But we can say that our own AI on this planet is clearly headed into distant regions of Cyber Space.  I saw at least three different softwares advertised during the Olympics, one suggesting that students should use it for thank you notes.  The message of Verner Vinge and the Singularity seem particularly relevant as we earthlings find ourselves hurling threw Space/Time.

We are all Voyagers on Earth.  And we need to look forward to find our place in this universe and in this time. The Merchants of Fear will always be with us. But as it is said, We have nothing to fear, but fear itself.

And as we dance to the hopeful beat of the Harris Walz, I choose to be optimistic about our future despite the urgent need for climate stabilization and the nuclear wars and starvation that will follow our non-action.

And like Earnest Tubb and Willie Nelson,

 I'll Walz across Texas with you by my side.

for  When we Dance together

 my world's in disguise

 it's a fairyland tale that's come true.

 

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HOT HOT HOT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The last days of July will go down in the record books.

First of all, it was HOT. (except in Texas) The hottest day ever NASA says:

July 22, 2024, was the hottest day on record, according to a NASA analysis of global daily temperature data. July 21 and 23 of this year also exceeded the previous daily record, set in July 2023. These record-breaking temperatures are part of a long-term warming trend driven by human activities, primarily the emission of greenhouse gases.  

“In a year that has been the hottest on record to date, these past two weeks have been particularly brutal,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “Through our over two dozen Earth-observing satellites and over 60 years of data, NASA is providing critical analyses of how our planet is changing and how local communities can prepare, adapt, and stay safe. We are proud to be part of the Biden-Harris Administration efforts to protect communities from extreme heat.”

In the meantime, the R's act like climate change is religion, not physics.  And that gives others the hall pass to say and think stupidly with impunity.

And it was HOT in the body politic as the upcoming election between a convicted felon and a 81 year old political veteran who was the youngest senator ever as well as the oldest president turned on a dime as Biden announced he would withdraw from the race.  In the blink of an eye, the felon became the old doddering dangerous fool as his opponent transmogrified into a competent prosecutor and campaigner. 

In another blink of an eye just days before, the FPOTUS  missed being assassinated by about an inch in Western Pennsylvania by a 20 year old with an AR 15. At the R national convention, he milked it by wearing an odd square mini-pad on his ear.  Of course, others followed.

But with Harris becoming the new standard bearer,  the  "D" electorate awoke from its slumber to the tune of 200 million dollars in one week, 310 million by the end of the month.

And why not?

As Michael Moore opined today:

So my friends, 100 days from today is November 5th. Election day. 100 days from today. I mean, I have to ask, he’s probably not listening, but does Trump even know what happened this week? It took just five days. This week. It took just five days. 

Nothing like it had ever happened before in American history. And yet by this past Thursday, a mere five days after President Biden’s 1:46 p.m. Sunday afternoon announcement of him ending his reelection campaign and handing the candidacy over to his Vice President, Kamala Harris. Just five days. And that’s all it took for the Wall Street Journal on Thursday — you know the Wall Street Journal, right? No friend to women, People of Color, young voters, the poor, the working class, the Wall Street Journal, this grand oracle of capitalism, conservative ideology, and the force that is Rupert Murdoch. 

That newspaper ran this stunning historic headline. And, I mean, I looked at it and I said, “Wow, this is one for the ages.” Ready for it. This is all it said: “Harris Erases Trump’s Lead, WSJ Poll Finds”. “Harris Erases Trump’s Lead” — Wow. That’s how long it took. Five days.  

Apparently, somewhere along the way, Trump Van Winkle must have fallen into a deep sleep and missed the memo that many white men like him also seem to miss. It read something like this: “America is no longer your America — you, the members of the exclusive club for the gender that’s missing the second X chromosome. 

So what’s the takeaway here? It’s quite simple. Are you ready? I’ll say it slow if you want to write this down: There are more of us than there are of them. We are now the Majority. We, America, are a liberal nation. Doesn’t matter, from abortion to climate, to the economy, to the Millennials who would vote for a Socialist, that’s who we are now. And we’re going to elect the first woman, a black woman, no less, to be the President of the United States.  (this is the point that we knock on wood)

But truly, the polls are just as HOT.  This from Simon at Hopium:

It’s A New, Bluer Election - 8 polls have been released this week showing Vice President Harris leading (all polls via 538): 

• 49%-45% (+4) Civiqs 

• 49%-46% (+3) Leger (was +7 Trump) 

• 48%-46% (+2) FAU (was +5 Trump) 

• 46%-44% (+2) Economist/YouGov (was +3 Trump last week!!!!!!) 

• 45%-43% (+2) Redfield and Wilton

• 50%-48% (+2) American Pulse Research and Polling

• 44%-42% (+2) Angus Reid Global 

• 47%-46% (+1) Morning Consult

And the all-important swing states are just as HOT.

A new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll had Harris leading the battlegrounds 48-47, and ahead in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, tied in Georgia, and down just 2 North Carolina.

That leaves Pennsylvania, so all eyes are going to be there.  There's more electoral votes there than Arizona and Nevada combined.

Meanwhile, the greatest Olympic production in 100 years in Paris is still on a roll.

And that flying floating caldron of Promethean Fire seems very fitting.

It's good to see the nations playing by the rules.

And then there's Persia and Israel.

Very old enemies with very old ideas.

And they need to cool it,

So they don't ignite.

 

 

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The Safer Path

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We all waited anxiously for the big day.  A friend joined us to watch because she was extra nervous.

It would be the day that the D's would prove that their 81 year old guy was clearly a better candidate than the R's 78 year old guy who, as they say, lies like a rug.  As the POTUS walked onto the CNN stage from the right, he looked pale and his walk was even more halting.  When he opened his mouth, mine fell open. And even though he got better, it was like watching a basketball game where your team falls twenty points behind in the first quarter.  Sure we were maybe down 15 at half and just by 10 in the third quarter, but it was never a competition.  Yes, there were some memorable shots and brief moments of hope, and yes, there might be another one in September.

But as the author of Strongmen said the next day on MSNBC, there is no debating when you are faced with a criminal who has no relationship with the truth, who simply says what's in his mind whether its real or not.  And generally it is NOT. And if he is not held to some modicum of reality, the debate just turns into a soapbox for his propaganda. Corporate media and  politicians must learn the truth of this.

So, to debate him again would seem like folly no matter how informed or skilled you may be.

Since then, the NYTs editorial board has called for Biden to withdraw.  So have a few others. They should be ashamed of their decision to ask a president with a cold to withdraw while simultaneously allowing a former president with a plethora of civil and criminal convictions to remain.

From the Times: "If the race comes down to a choice between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, the sitting president would be this board’s unequivocal pick. That is how much of a danger Mr. Trump poses. But given that very danger, the stakes for the country and the uneven abilities of Mr. Biden, the United States needs a stronger opponent to the presumptive Republican nominee. To make a call for a new Democratic nominee this late in a campaign is a decision not taken lightly, but it reflects the scale and seriousness of Mr. Trump’s challenge to the values and institutions of this country and the inadequacy of Mr. Biden to confront him."

Thankfully, the Philadelphia Inquirer did call for Dtrump's withdrawal.

"President Joe Biden’s debate performance was a disaster. His disjointed responses and dazed look sparked calls for him to drop out of the presidential race.

But lost in the hand wringing was Donald Trump’s usual bombastic litany of lies, hyperbole, bigotry, ignorance, and fear mongering. His performance demonstrated once again that he is a danger to democracy and unfit for office.

In fact, the debate about the debate is misplaced. The only person who should withdraw from the race is Trump.

In response, Biden made a powerful speech on Friday and apparently has raised over 33 million since that black Thursday. The cooler heads in the party talk of calming down. Remember Dtrump actually survived the pussy tape, mostly  because the R's had their gun loaded with stolen democratic party goodies thanks to the other R's as they shunted the news cycle in record time through their Wikileaks channel.

And we should have our hands around our own strategy to counter this event and reduce the odds of it happening again. And we must reduce our risk exposure by taking matters into our control.

Nothing can stop Biden from resigning the presidency and handing it over to Vice President Harris. She then can appoint a new Vice President who should probably be Governor Whitmer of Michigan. Whitmer only needs a majority of both houses to be confirmed.  And if the R's don't confirm her, that's another big story.

The New York Times and their followers will be a bit mortified yet emboldened by their ability to remove a president from office.  President Harris will want to give them the story they deserve.

In the blink of an eye, we will have the first female president of the United States.  The new 47th president will also be a person of color. The airwaves will be full of the historic moment.  Biden will be seen as a hero of the nation.  His positives will go way up. We will likely have the first all-female ticket in World History. More importantly, Ms Harris has the least negatives of any other democratic figure at -5%.

We can win back the House and keep the Senate.  We could make strides in restoring the Supreme Court to some semblance of balance and justice. We will continue Biden's work on Climate Change. Electric cars will continue to proliferate. With Congressional action, Women's health care will return to sanity.

If the women of America, along with all the other traditional democratic constituencies, blacks, hispanics, gays, and college educated whites can't beat the ugliest political force this country has seen in 100 years, then we do have a problem.

A Fascist White Christian Nation will no longer be just a Handmaids Tale.

It will be our own Highway to Hell.

Biden should relinquish his presidency 

for the good of the Republic. 

There is no safer path.

 

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The Felon

 

I was talking with a former executive director of a renewable energy trade association that we founded back in the 1980s.  We have worked together for 40 years developing the renewable energy industry here in Texas.  And we did a pretty good job. As of today on the ERCOT scoreboard, there is just under 40 GWs of wind capacity and just over 20 GWs of solar capacity.  Plus there is about 6 GWs of storage.  All of this on a 90 GW system.

That means as of 2:00 PM on Sunday in early June, almost 50% of the total electrical energy consumed in Texas is Renewable Energy.  Natural Gas is 38%, Coal is just over 5% and Nuclear is 7.5 %.

And right now, prices are about $15/MWH.  That's 1.5 cents per Kwh.

So, even though the R's of Texas want to slow this growth down, they are going to have a tough time given the support that is coming from Washington and President Biden as he continues to make fighting climate change with clean affordable energy a big part of his governing.

Here in Austin, we are about 60% wind, solar, and biomass right now.

When we started the conversation, I for some reason said that I was expecting a decision out of the state court in New York regarding the FPOTUS's 34 charges. My long time colleague opined that the best we can hope for is a hung jury.  He reasoned that a guilty charge would be unlikely and that an acquittal seemed remote given the mountain of evidence that the jury had at their disposal. Based on his political calculus, he reasoned that a guilty verdict would just create a turnout boost for the R's and that a hung jury might be best we can hope for.

By the time we hung up, the news was breaking.  

Trump was guilty on all 34 counts.

I immediately turned over to Fox to see if they were even covering it.  They were.

And soon, all of the R's were singing from the Trump Choir Book.  He did nothing wrong.  The case was rigged. The judge was a Democrat.  (Apparently Trump can only get a fair trial from Republicans.) All of them seemingly blind to the irony that the President's son is going to be on Trial  soon for signing a form that says he's not on drugs as he attempts to buy a gun while he's clearly on drugs. 

Had the New York jury acquitted, it would have been a stunning affirmation of the  fairness and strength of our Justice System. Even a hung jury would have been exoneration in their eyes. But Guilty?  It's a sham.

As George Conway so effectively states, the Rs are suffused with Lies:

During an appearance on CNN, Conway slapped down Republican claims that Trump is the victim of a political prosecution by laying out how Trump's actions led to him becoming a convicted felon.

"I mean, if you don't want to be found guilty of falsifying business records as a felony, don't sleep with the porn star, don't lie about it, don't pay her off, don't cover up the payoff, don't cover up the payoff in the middle of a presidential campaign," he said.

Conway then turned his attention to the other alleged crimes for which Trump has been indicted.

"If you don't want to be indicted for overthrowing the Constitution, don't start a self-coup," he said. "If you don't want to be indicted for stealing classified documents and obstructing justice, don't take the classified documents. When the government asked for it back, give them back. If the FBI serves you with a search warrant, don't hide the documents and don't lie about it and don't have your lawyers lie about it. 

This isn't that hard. 

Donald Trump is not the victim here!"

CNN's Jennings made the argument that Trump's convictions would only help him politically since they were done at the behest of a Democratic New York prosecutor, but Conway argued that Jennings' response is everything that is wrong with the current Republican Party and the conservative movement as a whole.

"This is the problem with the Republican Party: They are suffused with lies," he said. "I don't know why this network is paying Scott to say those lies."

This drew a brushback from host Kasie Hunt, who chided Conway for calling Jennings a liar on live TV.

"Scott is our colleague and we're going to treat him respectfully as such!" she insisted.

"Well he shouldn't lie!" Conway shot back.

The R litmus tests these days are stunningly simple and undemocratic to the core.  You must agree that the 2020 election was stolen, that Jan 6 was not a violent attempt to interrupt the peaceful transfer of power, and that if they do not win the 2024 election, it too is not legitimate.  It's rather straightforward, R criminal leaders must be tried by R criminal followers, and if they lose, it must be because it was stolen. In other words, they no longer play by the rules.

This is a recipe for a dis-functional democracy and the R's know it. As a minority, they must break our crucible of democracy.

But will this conviction help the R's?

Morning Consult found this on Friday:

• Over half of voters (54%) approve of the 12 jurors’ historic decision to convict the former president on 34 felony charges related to a 2016 hush-money scheme with adult actress Stormy Daniels. A similar share believes Trump committed a crime.

• Our Friday survey showed that just 15% of Republican voters nationwide want Trump to drop his White House bid.

JUST Fifteen percent want him to drop his bid for the White House?

This is going to hurt somebody politically.

And it's the Felon. 

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Good things from Bad things

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of now,  the FPOTUS is spending 4 days a week in a small courtroom flanked by his attorneys.  Occassionally, he goes to sleep.  Ever day he's in court, he finishes with a statement from the courtroom hallway often repeating his many misstatements about almost everything.

Meanwhile, all of Washington sans the FPOTUS gathered at the Hilton for the annual toney Correspondents Dinner. This from the Hollywood Reporter:

Before the event began, hundreds of protesters had gathered outside the Hilton in the Adams Morgan neighborhood of Washington to confront attendees and encourage journalists to boycott the event. The demonstrators shouted about the deaths of journalists in Gaza as they covered the ongoing conflict there and held banners while chanting “Free, free Palestine.” Biden was also reportedly confronted by a smaller group of protesters calling for a ceasefire on Israel’s deadly ground campaign in Gaza. 

Later in the evening, Biden took to the podium where he fired off a relentless series of gags that went after headliner Jost (addressing the SNL writer’s wife, Scarlett Johansson: “Clearly, you’re the funny one in the family”); his presumed opponent Donald Trump in this year’s presidential race (“My vice president actually endorses me…”); and even acknowledged the hot-button issue of his age, which as the first octogenarian presidential candidate is a central issue for voters (“Yes, I’m a grown man running against a six-year-old”).

Colin Jost followed with some pretty good jokes that for some reason didn't really land.  (The best ones were about his wife)

Yet in the end, Jost turned it around with simple sentimentality and by offering a sincere moment directly to the U.S. president. Bringing up his late firefighter grandfather, who died this past year, Jost told Biden that he reminds him of the man who had voted for the president in 2020. 

“My grandpa voted for decency, and decency is why we’re all here tonight. 

Decency is how we’re able to be here tonight,” Jost said. 

He also made a quip about how this decent man is not beating his serial lying, court appearing, hate mongering, word mangling, supreme court corrupted, narcissistic opponent like the Globetrotters would dominate the Washington Generals. 

How could the race be anywhere close to tied?

Here is Simon Rosenberg's take:

As I reviewed last night, here’s my basic take on the 2024 election right now: 

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a very strong case for re-election.

The Democratic Party is strong, unified, raising tons of money and winning elections all across the country.

And what do they have? They have Trump, the ugliest political thing any of us has ever seen, leading a party far more a raging dumpster fire than a well- oiled political machine.

In 538’s national Presidential polling average Biden has gained 1.7 pts against Trump in recent weeks, and the general election head to head is essentially tied. 

We’ve also seen a 3.5 pt gain for Democrats in recent months in 538’s Congressional Generic (which party will you support for Congress), and Dems now have a slight lead though it too is essentially tied. 

A majority of the national polls this week have the Biden tied or ahead, with 3 - Marist, Ipsos and FAU showing small Biden leads. It’s a close, competitive election with Dems gaining some ground in recent weeks.

We’ve seen this dynamic - Republicans repeatedly struggling - show up in 2024 now too. We saw it in the Tom Keen January special election in Orlando; in the Suozzi win in February; in Alabama a few weeks ago; in NY-26 Tuesday; and most importantly we’ve seen it again and again in Trump’s Presidential primary performances, where he has repeatedly underperformed public polling and Haley repeatedly performed far better than anyone expected, even after she dropped out of the race. Remember in 2024 Trump has been repeatedly *underperforming* public polling. 

I also think we’ve seen this dynamic in the recent Marist polling that breaks out likely voters from registered voters, something few polls are doing right now. In this week’s Marist poll Biden leads 50-48 (+2) with registered voters, but 52-47 (+5) with “definite” or likely voters. 

So why is the race so tight ?  Is it Crime?

A new USA Today story on crime rates in America interviewed crime data expert Jeff Asher: 

As early data showed murders declining nationwide last year, Asher was careful about overstating things. But as the big decline continued, he wrote in December that he had “seen enough” and was ready to declare that the U.S. was experiencing a major drop in killings.

“Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023, likely at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded,” Asher wrote online.

The decrease in murders is "potentially historically large," Asher told USA TODAY, and it's not just killings that are declining. Preliminary 2023 FBI data “paint the picture" of a big decrease in overall crime, he wrote.

Biden governs and leads, on hard things, big things, on the things that matter to all of us.

Is the race tight because of the Economy?

Our economy is the best in the world.  Just look at this graph

The US Grows As % Of Global GDP - The remarkable American economy continues to be as the FT called it the other day, “the envy of the world.” Note that as our share of global GDP has grown in recent years, China’s has declined. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is the race tight because of the border? 

Rs are doing all they can to make political hay out of this global phenomenon that will only get worse and worse as climate change continues to wreck havoc around the world and the United States continues to be a refuge from that chaos.

Is the race tight because of Gaza?

Biden and Democrats have closed the gap  during the last few months, but College unrest could make taking a clear lead this summer more problematic.

Last night at dinner, I talked about how bad things sometimes arise from good things and good things can arise from bad things.

Let's hope and work this election to be the latter.

And that Decency prevails over Lunacy

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